Climate change and mediterranean mountain livelihoods: insights from multi-stakeholder fuzzy cognitive mapping in portuguese highlands
摘要
Disturbances in mountain socio-ecological systems (SES), coupled with their extreme vulnerability, can undermine resilience and, if unaddressed, lead to the formation of interconnected polytraps. This study examines climate change effects on local livelihoods in Serra da Estrela Mountain (Portugal) by fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). Pre-determined variables were introduced in the design of the FCM for better cost and time-effectiveness. The results were compared with the Drivers–Pressures–State–Impacts–Responses (DPSIR) framework to examine how local perceptions relate to established scientific and policy knowledge. This approach made it possible to identify the dual roles of certain variables—such as tourism—and to highlight nuances in the interpretation of agriculture, demographic issues, and policies. Key feedback loops that lock the system into a state of chronic vulnerability are identified and analyzed through the concept of polytraps that highlighted multiple intertwined drivers that reinforce each other. Although the analysis revealed a highly reactive system where threshold variables exert extremely strong pressure, the adaptive variables have the potential to enable system self-organization. Ecological grief emerges as a response; however, evidence suggests that community stamina and cultural identity continue to function as protective factors that enable adaptation. Scenario simulations were made to test the variables sensitivity in different situations. The findings highlight the need for improved communication and greater citizen participation in management processes. Drawing on the results of the FCM, the study proposes actionable interventions aimed at addressing the identified system dynamics.