<p>In Germany, the assignment of newly immigrated children and adolescents to tracked secondary schools regardless of their academic potential is often justified by the possibility of later school transitions. To examine the extent to which the school system is permeable for this student group, this study investigated the frequency of school transitions and the influence of structural, performance-related, and personality-related characteristics on upward and downward transitions of newly immigrated students. Using data from the ReGES panel, academic trajectories of <i>N</i> = 1499 refugee students who arrived in Germany since 2014 were analyzed. The results indicate, among other, that most students remained at the initially attended school, and that downward transitions occur more frequently than upward transitions. Intelligence and grades had no influence on school transitions. Higher educational achievement in the country of origin was associated with more upward transitions, while high educational aspirations were associated with fewer downward transitions. School transitions were also more common when attending preparatory classes and having better German language skills. The findings suggest that school transitions currently contribute little to a&#xa0;fair, performance-based redistribution.</p>