Der KiTa-Fachkräftebedarf – eine Vorausberechnung bis zum Jahr 2035

The early childhood education and care (ECEC) system in Germany has an unparalleled history of expansion, which is still ongoing. Nevertheless, a comprehensive supply has not yet been achieved, a challenge that is further complicated by the shortage of skilled professionals. Forecasts to estimate the future demand for ECEC places and particularly for staff and professionals prove to be an essential tool for demand-oriented planning of ECEC services and staff in child daycare. The corresponding calculations require constant review and consideration of current developments and data.

This article will firstly outline political and societal processes concerning ECEC in Germany and the concurrent advancement of evidence-based approaches of staff forecasting. Subsequently, the analysis steps and results of a recent study are presented, which forecasts the demand for professionals in childcare facilities in Germany for the year 2035 and estimates whether this demand is likely to be met.