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<p>The electoral law reform adopted by the German SPD/Greens/FDP coalition in March 2023 was applied for the first time in the February 2025 federal elections. The relatively drastic intervention of no longer allocating all direct mandates won has led to much criticism. Although this criticism has mainly focused on the difficulty of explaining to voters why candidates with a majority of first votes may be denied seats, another consequence of the reform has often been overlooked: Smaller parties often win larger shares of first votes in urban constituencies than they do in rural constituencies, which means that urban constituencies are often won with smaller shares of first votes. Thus, the probability is significantly higher that direct mandates will not be awarded in urban constituencies. The new electoral law therefore puts certain constituencies at risk of being systematically unrepresented in the Bundestag. To test this expectation, the new electoral law was applied to the results of the 2009–2021 Bundestag elections. The paper concludes with a discussion of the strategic implications of the new electoral law.</p>

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Das Bundestagswahlrecht vom März 2023: Repräsentationsdefizit städtischer Wahlkreise

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月27日

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  • Dominic Nyhuis,
  • Sam Känner

摘要

The electoral law reform adopted by the German SPD/Greens/FDP coalition in March 2023 was applied for the first time in the February 2025 federal elections. The relatively drastic intervention of no longer allocating all direct mandates won has led to much criticism. Although this criticism has mainly focused on the difficulty of explaining to voters why candidates with a majority of first votes may be denied seats, another consequence of the reform has often been overlooked: Smaller parties often win larger shares of first votes in urban constituencies than they do in rural constituencies, which means that urban constituencies are often won with smaller shares of first votes. Thus, the probability is significantly higher that direct mandates will not be awarded in urban constituencies. The new electoral law therefore puts certain constituencies at risk of being systematically unrepresented in the Bundestag. To test this expectation, the new electoral law was applied to the results of the 2009–2021 Bundestag elections. The paper concludes with a discussion of the strategic implications of the new electoral law.