Das Schließen der Repräsentationslücke? Die Wählerschaft des Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Eine Analyse basierend auf Paneldaten

Despite its recent founding, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has already developed into a relevant player in the German party system. This article provides a more comprehensive look at the BSW electorate based on panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study. By using panel data, it is possible not only to describe the current attitudes of BSW supporters but also to track their changes over time. The analysis shows three key points: (1) The BSW is particularly popular with former left-wing supporters and voters who turned away from the established parties after the federal election of 2021 and have since sympathized with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The founding of the BSW and the decline of the AfD in the polls are therefore linked. (2) The BSW closes a representation gap in the German party system. Already many years ago—when the founding of the BSW was not up for debate—respondents who now support the BSW were different from the other respondents, even when previous voting behavior is controlled for. This is particularly true for attitudes toward regulating immigration. (3) The BSW supporters have also previously shown critical attitudes toward (representative) democracy (low satisfaction with democracy and high populism). Overall, the results suggest that the BSW has a distinct electorate, which should contribute to its further establishment in the German party system.