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<p>Even though a&#xa0;southern-eastern enlargement of the European Union is geopolitically imperative, it is hardly manageable in terms of integration policy. This is the basic dilemma the European Union currently faces (beginning of&#xa0;2026). Understanding the tension between integration and expansion of the EU requires, to begin with, a&#xa0;concise theoretical explanation of enlargement and integration as self-dynamic processes. The named tension is dramatically exacerbated by the specific conditions of an impending southern-eastern enlargement. Seven aspects are discussed that make this enlargement particularly complicated and risky: time pressure, a&#xa0;two-tier prosperity gap, democratic deficits in the accession countries, national identity issues, populist sovereignism within the EU, geopolitical rivalry and the elimination of buffer zones, including Russia’s war against Ukraine. With these, EU enlargement policy faces a&#xa0;multitude of dilemmas—which are unlikely to be resolved even by gradual integration as an explicit expansion strategy. Rather, gradations of integration and new buffer zones could develop as unintended effects of the policies of those member states that oppose the EU from within.</p>

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Dilemmata einer Süd- und Osterweiterung der Europäischen Union

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月17日

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  • Georg Vobruba

摘要

Even though a southern-eastern enlargement of the European Union is geopolitically imperative, it is hardly manageable in terms of integration policy. This is the basic dilemma the European Union currently faces (beginning of 2026). Understanding the tension between integration and expansion of the EU requires, to begin with, a concise theoretical explanation of enlargement and integration as self-dynamic processes. The named tension is dramatically exacerbated by the specific conditions of an impending southern-eastern enlargement. Seven aspects are discussed that make this enlargement particularly complicated and risky: time pressure, a two-tier prosperity gap, democratic deficits in the accession countries, national identity issues, populist sovereignism within the EU, geopolitical rivalry and the elimination of buffer zones, including Russia’s war against Ukraine. With these, EU enlargement policy faces a multitude of dilemmas—which are unlikely to be resolved even by gradual integration as an explicit expansion strategy. Rather, gradations of integration and new buffer zones could develop as unintended effects of the policies of those member states that oppose the EU from within.