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<p>In contemporary times, earthquakes present escalating risks, driven by rapid urban expansion, high population density, and insufficiently resilient infrastructure in seismically active regions. On March 28, 2025, a powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck central Myanmar, resulting in significant loss of life, widespread injuries, and infrastructure damage, including high-rise buildings. This study investigates the seismic intensity and risk distribution of the Myanmar earthquake, as well as the potential impacts using a fuzzy logic-based model. The Sagaing Fault, a major active tectonic boundary, played a central role in the earthquake’s origin and intensity. Through historical analysis and modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) mapping, the research identifies Mandalay and Sagaing provinces as the region’s most severely affected. Risk distribution analysis revealed that population exposure, rather than proximity to the epicenter alone, played a decisive role in determining risk levels. The integration of a fuzzy logic model using magnitude and depth inputs provided a more nuanced prediction of seismic impact, validating its performance against historical earthquake data. The model assigned a high impact score (8.6) to the 2025 earthquake, the high range, defined as 6 through 10 on a ten-point scale, aligning with observed damages. The study emphasizes the special need for enhanced seismic preparedness, resilient infrastructure planning, and the adoption of the fuzzy logic approach for more accurate earthquake impact forecasting of different earthquakes.</p>

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Insights, risk distribution, and potential impact assessment using fuzzy logic of the Mw 7.7, March 2025 earthquake in Myanmar

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月10日

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  • Md. Al Amin,
  • Quazi Hamidul Bari,
  • Md. Tushar Ali

摘要

In contemporary times, earthquakes present escalating risks, driven by rapid urban expansion, high population density, and insufficiently resilient infrastructure in seismically active regions. On March 28, 2025, a powerful magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck central Myanmar, resulting in significant loss of life, widespread injuries, and infrastructure damage, including high-rise buildings. This study investigates the seismic intensity and risk distribution of the Myanmar earthquake, as well as the potential impacts using a fuzzy logic-based model. The Sagaing Fault, a major active tectonic boundary, played a central role in the earthquake’s origin and intensity. Through historical analysis and modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) mapping, the research identifies Mandalay and Sagaing provinces as the region’s most severely affected. Risk distribution analysis revealed that population exposure, rather than proximity to the epicenter alone, played a decisive role in determining risk levels. The integration of a fuzzy logic model using magnitude and depth inputs provided a more nuanced prediction of seismic impact, validating its performance against historical earthquake data. The model assigned a high impact score (8.6) to the 2025 earthquake, the high range, defined as 6 through 10 on a ten-point scale, aligning with observed damages. The study emphasizes the special need for enhanced seismic preparedness, resilient infrastructure planning, and the adoption of the fuzzy logic approach for more accurate earthquake impact forecasting of different earthquakes.