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<p>The Tigris River Basin (TRB) in West Asia, a vital water source in an already water-stressed region, faces increasing challenges due to climate change. The current study aims to assess the future impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in TRB. Historical data (1984–2022) were analyzed, and four global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to make future projections for three time periods (2016–2035, 2046–2065, and 2081–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator applied to detect and assess temporal trends and change magnitudes in temperature and precipitation throughout the basin in order to extensively investigate climatic behaviors. Based on the findings, temperatures rose to 12.7–15.4 and 12.9–17.8&#xa0;°C, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far future (2081–2100). For precipitation, the upper TRB recorded the highest values, ranging from 1987 to 2318&#xa0;mm in the far period (2081–2100) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, the highest precipitation was recorded in the mid-century period (2046–2065), ranging from 2857 to 3425&#xa0;mm. The statistical trend analysis showed strong consensus among the models on a clear and persistent warming trend, with projected temperature increases of 2.05–4.13&#xa0;°C every 20 years, particularly affecting the downstream regions of TRB in Iraq. In contrast, precipitation projections and MK trend results exhibited high variability and uncertainty. However, under the high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), a strong inverse relationship was observed between temperature increase and precipitation decrease, suggesting that extreme warming may be accompanied by a sharp decline in precipitation. The study confirms that the TRB is heading toward a warmer future, placing significant pressure on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems.</p>

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Future impacts of temperature and precipitation induced by climate change over Tigris River Basin in Iraq

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月17日

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  • Bassim Mohammed Hashim,
  • Zaher Mundher Yaseen,
  • Zulfaqar Sa’adi,
  • Ricky Anak Kemarau,
  • Najeebullah Khan,
  • Leonardo Goliatt,
  • Sajjad Firas Abdulameer,
  • Shamsuddin Shahid

摘要

The Tigris River Basin (TRB) in West Asia, a vital water source in an already water-stressed region, faces increasing challenges due to climate change. The current study aims to assess the future impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in TRB. Historical data (1984–2022) were analyzed, and four global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to make future projections for three time periods (2016–2035, 2046–2065, and 2081–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator applied to detect and assess temporal trends and change magnitudes in temperature and precipitation throughout the basin in order to extensively investigate climatic behaviors. Based on the findings, temperatures rose to 12.7–15.4 and 12.9–17.8 °C, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far future (2081–2100). For precipitation, the upper TRB recorded the highest values, ranging from 1987 to 2318 mm in the far period (2081–2100) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, the highest precipitation was recorded in the mid-century period (2046–2065), ranging from 2857 to 3425 mm. The statistical trend analysis showed strong consensus among the models on a clear and persistent warming trend, with projected temperature increases of 2.05–4.13 °C every 20 years, particularly affecting the downstream regions of TRB in Iraq. In contrast, precipitation projections and MK trend results exhibited high variability and uncertainty. However, under the high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), a strong inverse relationship was observed between temperature increase and precipitation decrease, suggesting that extreme warming may be accompanied by a sharp decline in precipitation. The study confirms that the TRB is heading toward a warmer future, placing significant pressure on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems.