<p>Identification of changes in the dynamics of the seismic process foreshadowing the approach of a strong earthquake is a main problem of the modern Earth sciences. Revealing such precursory changes remains a difficult, but apparently solvable task based on current knowledge about earthquake generation and tectonic faulting. In the present work, assuming that seismic processes in the vicinity of a strong earthquake preparation area should differ from that in the other parts along the fault, we analyzed features of seismic processes in small areas (micro-catalogues) located along and near the San Andreas fault. Increments of cumulative times, distances and seismic energies were calculated. Based on increment data we compared spatial, temporal and energy characteristics of seismic processes in micro-catalogues and assessed their similarity/dissimilarity using Mahalanobis distance calculation. It was shown that dynamics of seismic processes in micro-catalogues located along the San&#xa0;Andreas fault undergo strong quantitative changes from 20&#xa0;h to 8&#xa0;days prior to strong &gt; M7.0 earthquakes. These changes were revealed in the form of the appearance of statistically significant dissimilarity of seismic processes compared to neighbouring areas. Significant differences (compared to other micro-catalogues) were found in the micro-catalogues where five out of six analyzed strongest earthquakes occurred within the considered period.&#xa0;The obtained differences between micro-catalogues may have the value of additional important precursory markers to predict strong earthquakes in California. The presented results will be potentially helpful in the development of warning systems to signal the approach of devastating earthquakes several hours or days before their occurrence.</p>

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Changes in seismic processes in small areas along San Andreas fault prior to M > 7.0 earthquakes, 1980–2025

  • Teimuraz Matcharashvili,
  • Tamaz Chelidze

摘要

Identification of changes in the dynamics of the seismic process foreshadowing the approach of a strong earthquake is a main problem of the modern Earth sciences. Revealing such precursory changes remains a difficult, but apparently solvable task based on current knowledge about earthquake generation and tectonic faulting. In the present work, assuming that seismic processes in the vicinity of a strong earthquake preparation area should differ from that in the other parts along the fault, we analyzed features of seismic processes in small areas (micro-catalogues) located along and near the San Andreas fault. Increments of cumulative times, distances and seismic energies were calculated. Based on increment data we compared spatial, temporal and energy characteristics of seismic processes in micro-catalogues and assessed their similarity/dissimilarity using Mahalanobis distance calculation. It was shown that dynamics of seismic processes in micro-catalogues located along the San Andreas fault undergo strong quantitative changes from 20 h to 8 days prior to strong > M7.0 earthquakes. These changes were revealed in the form of the appearance of statistically significant dissimilarity of seismic processes compared to neighbouring areas. Significant differences (compared to other micro-catalogues) were found in the micro-catalogues where five out of six analyzed strongest earthquakes occurred within the considered period. The obtained differences between micro-catalogues may have the value of additional important precursory markers to predict strong earthquakes in California. The presented results will be potentially helpful in the development of warning systems to signal the approach of devastating earthquakes several hours or days before their occurrence.