This paper focuses on the development of a robust numerical model designed for predicting sporadic-E layer occurrences. The developed model computes the maximum ion convergence (VIC \(_{\text {max}}\) ) and takes into account meridional and zonal winds, magnetic field orientation (inclination angle), and ion–neutral collision frequency profiles. The horizontal wind model (HWM) serves to provide neutral wind parameters. For magnetic field and neutral density data, we incorporate the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS) models. VIC \(_{\text {max}}\) at altitudes ranging from 100 to 120 km is analyzed. The time evolution of VIC \(_{\text {max}}\) for both July and January, corresponding to the northern and southern summer hemispheres, respectively, is assessed. We utilize foEs data from 11 ionosonde stations worldwide to validate our empirical numerical findings. The impact of active geomagnetic conditions is integrated through variations in the A \(_p\) index. Notably, we observe a distinct signature of solar wind influence on sporadic-E layer formation in both hemispheres. Furthermore, we investigate the potential correlation between active geomagnetic conditions and global sporadic-E distribution. The enhanced occurrence rate in both hemispheres aligns with our model’s predictions. We examine the solar radiation index and the differences in sporadic-E intensity noted in the radio occultation (RO) data for July and January of 2008 and 2014. The results from our numerical model show a strong correlation with the occurrence rates observed between July 2008 and July 2014, and the model also replicates similar trends observed in the RO data for July 2014.
