The present study addresses research gaps on future hourly and quarter-hourly precipitation trends. It studies in global urban context under various SSPs, 1,2,3, and 5 in climatic change and their further implications. In this study, cities considered are Athens, Bogota, Delhi, Rome, and Tokyo. Future daily projected precipitation of 2060 and 2100 is obtained from Copernicus portal. Hourly and quarter-hourly precipitation is computed using Indian Meteorological Department, IMD formula and Bartlett-Lewis (BL) Model from daily precipitation. Bias Corrected Prewhitening(bcpw) and Bootstrapped Mann–Kendall Trend Test with Optional Bias Corrected Prewhitening(pbmk) are applied to find sub-daily projected precipitation trends of data disaggregated with BLM and IMD formulae, respectively, of chosen cities to obtain accurate results. Most of the trend results are either insignificantly increasing or decreasing. However, there is a slope of trend for all the results obtained of cities considered. With IMD disaggregation formula, following trend results are obtained. Athens will have 4.74 × 10–6, 8.21 × 10–6, − 4.78 × 10–6, and − 1.99 × 10–6 hourly precipitation trend slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2060, respectively. Athens will get 6.92 × 10–6, − 1.09 × 10–5, − 3.92 × 10–5, and 4.04 × 10–6 hourly slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2100, accordingly. Bogota will have − 1.47 × 10–4, 8.04 × 10–4, 1.25 × 10–3, and 4.36 × 10–4 hourly precipitation trend slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2060, respectively. Bogota will get 1.30 × 10–3, 1.87 × 10–3, 8.96 × 10–4, and 2.45 × 10–3 hourly slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2100, accordingly. Delhi will have no slope under SSPs 1,2, and 3, while 9.77 × 10–8 hourly precipitation trend slope under SSP585 in 2060. Delhi will face − 6.25 × 10–16 under SSP126, no slope under SSPs 2 and 3, while, − 1.32 × 10–14 under SSP585 in 2100. Rome will be subjected to − 1.64 × 10–5, 1.96 × 10–6, − 4.51 × 10–6, and − 2.10 × 10–5 hourly trend slope in 2060 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. Rome will face 2.51 × 10–6, − 1.30 × 10–6, − 4.26 × 10–5, and − 1.72 × 10–7 hourly slope in 2100 under SSPs 1, 2, 3, and 5, accordingly. Tokyo will get − 2.19 × 10–5, − 4.98 × 10–5, 2.95 × 10–5, and 3.29 × 10–5 hourly trend slope in 2060 under SSPs 1, 2, 3, and 5, respectively. Tokyo will receive 9.82 × 10–6, 2.02 × 10–5, − 2.13 × 10–5, and − 1.23 × 10–5 hourly slope in 2100 under SSPs 1, 2, 3, and 5, accordingly. All trend slopes are in mm/year. However, there is no robust trend of sub-daily precipitation for all the cities considered in 2060 and 2100 under SSPs even with BL model disaggregation method. Further, implications of sub-daily future precipitations trends need to be studied in detail to assess their impacts on extreme events.

Hourly and quarter-hourly future precipitation trends and their implications in climatic change of Athens (Greece), Bogota (Colombia), Delhi (India), Rome (Italy), and Tokyo (Japan)

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2026年2月6日

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Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala

摘要

The present study addresses research gaps on future hourly and quarter-hourly precipitation trends. It studies in global urban context under various SSPs, 1,2,3, and 5 in climatic change and their further implications. In this study, cities considered are Athens, Bogota, Delhi, Rome, and Tokyo. Future daily projected precipitation of 2060 and 2100 is obtained from Copernicus portal. Hourly and quarter-hourly precipitation is computed using Indian Meteorological Department, IMD formula and Bartlett-Lewis (BL) Model from daily precipitation. Bias Corrected Prewhitening(bcpw) and Bootstrapped Mann–Kendall Trend Test with Optional Bias Corrected Prewhitening(pbmk) are applied to find sub-daily projected precipitation trends of data disaggregated with BLM and IMD formulae, respectively, of chosen cities to obtain accurate results. Most of the trend results are either insignificantly increasing or decreasing. However, there is a slope of trend for all the results obtained of cities considered. With IMD disaggregation formula, following trend results are obtained. Athens will have 4.74 × 10^–6, 8.21 × 10^–6, − 4.78 × 10^–6, and − 1.99 × 10^–6 hourly precipitation trend slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2060, respectively. Athens will get 6.92 × 10^–6, − 1.09 × 10^–5, − 3.92 × 10^–5, and 4.04 × 10^–6 hourly slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2100, accordingly. Bogota will have − 1.47 × 10^–4, 8.04 × 10^–4, 1.25 × 10^–3, and 4.36 × 10^–4 hourly precipitation trend slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2060, respectively. Bogota will get 1.30 × 10^–3, 1.87 × 10^–3, 8.96 × 10^–4, and 2.45 × 10^–3 hourly slope under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 in 2100, accordingly. Delhi will have no slope under SSPs 1,2, and 3, while 9.77 × 10^–8 hourly precipitation trend slope under SSP585 in 2060. Delhi will face − 6.25 × 10^–16 under SSP126, no slope under SSPs 2 and 3, while, − 1.32 × 10^–14 under SSP585 in 2100. Rome will be subjected to − 1.64 × 10^–5, 1.96 × 10^–6, − 4.51 × 10^–6, and − 2.10 × 10^–5 hourly trend slope in 2060 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. Rome will face 2.51 × 10^–6, − 1.30 × 10^–6, − 4.26 × 10^–5, and − 1.72 × 10^–7 hourly slope in 2100 under SSPs 1, 2, 3, and 5, accordingly. Tokyo will get − 2.19 × 10^–5, − 4.98 × 10^–5, 2.95 × 10^–5, and 3.29 × 10^–5 hourly trend slope in 2060 under SSPs 1, 2, 3, and 5, respectively. Tokyo will receive 9.82 × 10^–6, 2.02 × 10^–5, − 2.13 × 10^–5, and − 1.23 × 10^–5 hourly slope in 2100 under SSPs 1, 2, 3, and 5, accordingly. All trend slopes are in mm/year. However, there is no robust trend of sub-daily precipitation for all the cities considered in 2060 and 2100 under SSPs even with BL model disaggregation method. Further, implications of sub-daily future precipitations trends need to be studied in detail to assess their impacts on extreme events.