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<p>This study investigates the complex interplay between seasonal temperature anomalies and extreme rainfall patterns in Kerala, India, using daily gridded temperature and rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for 1951–2023. The analysis employs eight Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), including Rx1-day (maximum 1-day rainfall), PRCPTOT (total wet-day rainfall), TXx (hottest days), TXm (mean maximum temperature), TXn (coldest days), TNx (warmest nights), TNm (mean minimum temperature), and TNn (coldest nights), aggregated seasonally across Kerala’s North, Central, and South regions. The objectives are to evaluate long-term trends in these indices, identify seasons with extreme climatic events or transitions, examine regional variations, and explore the relationship between temperature anomalies and subsequent extreme rainfall. A consistent warming trend is observed across all regions, with the South exhibiting the highest increase (0.0217°C/season during the Southwest Monsoon). PRCPTOT shows a decline in the Central and North regions, with significant shifts in the mid-1980s and early 1970s, while the South experiences increased Rx1-day events during the Southwest and Northeast Monsoons, with notable transitions in 1991 and 1992. Warmer winters and summers amplify extreme rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon, particularly in the South, as evidenced by the 2019 floods, where high winter TNm anomalies (+ 1.2°C) preceded extreme Rx1-day values. The North shows high monsoon rainfall variability (~ 2311 mm PRCPTOT) and flood risk, while the South’s stable, warmer temperatures (TNm ~ 23.3°C in summer) highlight distinct vulnerabilities. A positive correlation between winter/summer temperature anomalies and subsequent monsoon rainfall extremes (Spearman’s ρ = 0.22–0.26, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) underscores temperature’s role in intensifying rainfall. These findings inform climate adaptation strategies, emphasizing heat-tolerant crops and energy-efficient systems in the South, drought-resistant crops in the Central and North, and enhanced flood management across regions to address Kerala’s increasing climate risks.</p>

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The role of seasonal temperature anomalies in modulating extreme rainfall of Kerala, India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月14日

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  • M. A. Jincy Rose,
  • Degavath Vinod,
  • Vasala Saicharan

摘要

This study investigates the complex interplay between seasonal temperature anomalies and extreme rainfall patterns in Kerala, India, using daily gridded temperature and rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for 1951–2023. The analysis employs eight Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), including Rx1-day (maximum 1-day rainfall), PRCPTOT (total wet-day rainfall), TXx (hottest days), TXm (mean maximum temperature), TXn (coldest days), TNx (warmest nights), TNm (mean minimum temperature), and TNn (coldest nights), aggregated seasonally across Kerala’s North, Central, and South regions. The objectives are to evaluate long-term trends in these indices, identify seasons with extreme climatic events or transitions, examine regional variations, and explore the relationship between temperature anomalies and subsequent extreme rainfall. A consistent warming trend is observed across all regions, with the South exhibiting the highest increase (0.0217°C/season during the Southwest Monsoon). PRCPTOT shows a decline in the Central and North regions, with significant shifts in the mid-1980s and early 1970s, while the South experiences increased Rx1-day events during the Southwest and Northeast Monsoons, with notable transitions in 1991 and 1992. Warmer winters and summers amplify extreme rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon, particularly in the South, as evidenced by the 2019 floods, where high winter TNm anomalies (+ 1.2°C) preceded extreme Rx1-day values. The North shows high monsoon rainfall variability (~ 2311 mm PRCPTOT) and flood risk, while the South’s stable, warmer temperatures (TNm ~ 23.3°C in summer) highlight distinct vulnerabilities. A positive correlation between winter/summer temperature anomalies and subsequent monsoon rainfall extremes (Spearman’s ρ = 0.22–0.26, p < 0.05) underscores temperature’s role in intensifying rainfall. These findings inform climate adaptation strategies, emphasizing heat-tolerant crops and energy-efficient systems in the South, drought-resistant crops in the Central and North, and enhanced flood management across regions to address Kerala’s increasing climate risks.