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<p>The objective of this paper is to verify a research hypothesis that there exist certain types of atmospheric circulation for which short-term hydrologic ensemble predictions, with lead times ranging from a few minutes to a few hours, are skilful. In the aftermath of the scrutiny, the forecaster will have the information on what skills to expect in case of a given atmospheric circulation type. Herein, atmospheric circulation is not considered as an input variable in the process of issuing short-term hydrologic forecasts, but it characterises favourable and unfavourable meteorological background for these prognoses to perform well. Short-term (up to 3&#xa0;h into the future) multimodel ensemble predictions of water levels in the upper Nysa Kłodzka river basin (southwestern Poland) were computed using HydroProg, one of the hydrologic ensemble prediction systems. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistics of those forecasts was computed and juxtaposed with 40 types of atmospheric circulation. The latter types were based on the combination of direction of advection, the cyclonality index and the humidity type. The experiment was conducted between 1 September 2013 and 3 December 2016, when the HydroProg system was working in real time. The hydrologic multimodel ensemble prediction was based on up to six ensemble members. Forecasts were issued at 11 sites within the basin, had 12 intermediate 15-minute steps (lead time ranged from 15 to 180&#xa0;min) and were updated every 15&#xa0;min. It was found that the most skilful short-term water level predictions, classified according to a widely accepted classification into good or satisfactory prognoses (NSE&#xa0;<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\ge\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mo>≥</mo> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>&#xa0;0.36), were associated with the wet humidity type, with prevailing northerly advection of air masses. Although meteorological conditions, during which short-term multimodel ensemble predictions perform well, were identified, the relation was not quantitative (statistical) but rather qualitative (based on prediction ranking in relation to circulation types). It presents some meteorological background for good or satisfactory short-term hydrologic prognoses, but cannot be used as a variable for refining these forecasts.</p>

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Relationship between skills of multimodel hydrologic ensemble predictions and atmospheric circulation patterns: a case study from the Nysa Kłodzka river basin (SW Poland)

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月11日

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  • Tomasz Niedzielski,
  • Hanna Ojrzyńska,
  • Bartłomiej Miziński,
  • Maciej Kryza,
  • Waldemar Spallek

摘要

The objective of this paper is to verify a research hypothesis that there exist certain types of atmospheric circulation for which short-term hydrologic ensemble predictions, with lead times ranging from a few minutes to a few hours, are skilful. In the aftermath of the scrutiny, the forecaster will have the information on what skills to expect in case of a given atmospheric circulation type. Herein, atmospheric circulation is not considered as an input variable in the process of issuing short-term hydrologic forecasts, but it characterises favourable and unfavourable meteorological background for these prognoses to perform well. Short-term (up to 3 h into the future) multimodel ensemble predictions of water levels in the upper Nysa Kłodzka river basin (southwestern Poland) were computed using HydroProg, one of the hydrologic ensemble prediction systems. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) statistics of those forecasts was computed and juxtaposed with 40 types of atmospheric circulation. The latter types were based on the combination of direction of advection, the cyclonality index and the humidity type. The experiment was conducted between 1 September 2013 and 3 December 2016, when the HydroProg system was working in real time. The hydrologic multimodel ensemble prediction was based on up to six ensemble members. Forecasts were issued at 11 sites within the basin, had 12 intermediate 15-minute steps (lead time ranged from 15 to 180 min) and were updated every 15 min. It was found that the most skilful short-term water level predictions, classified according to a widely accepted classification into good or satisfactory prognoses (NSE  \(\ge\) ≥  0.36), were associated with the wet humidity type, with prevailing northerly advection of air masses. Although meteorological conditions, during which short-term multimodel ensemble predictions perform well, were identified, the relation was not quantitative (statistical) but rather qualitative (based on prediction ranking in relation to circulation types). It presents some meteorological background for good or satisfactory short-term hydrologic prognoses, but cannot be used as a variable for refining these forecasts.