<p>This study analyzes the temporal trends of extreme precipitation in the Western Rif region of Morocco over 37 years, using data from nine meteorological stations. The Mann–Kendall test was applied to examine trends in various precipitation indices, including Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5D), extreme rainfall (R95P), as well as wet day indices (R10, R20, R25, R30, R50, R80, R100) that help evaluate the frequency and intensity of rainy days over time. To strengthen the analysis, both Sen’s slope and linear regression slope were used to quantify the magnitude and direction of trends. The results indicated that an increase in CDD was directly associated with a decrease in annual precipitation at some stations, highlighting the importance of this index as a key factor controlling annual rainfall. Conversely, the wet day indices showed relative stability at some stations, underscoring their role in maintaining water balance in the region despite variations in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall. Additionally, indices of very extreme rainfall (Rx50, Rx80, Rx100) were analyzed to determine changes in the intensity and frequency of these events over time. The study showed that there is significant spatial and temporal variability in these indices, with a marked increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation at some stations, such as Kouririn, while other stations exhibited stability or a decrease in some indices. This study highlights the importance of the interaction between local and regional climatic factors in shaping precipitation patterns, emphasizing the need for effective adaptation strategies and water resource management to address the increasing impacts of climate change in the region.</p>

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Trend analysis of heavy rainfall in the Western Rif: a statistical approach using the Mann–Kendall test

  • Ayoub Al Mashoudi,
  • Er-Riyahi Saber,
  • Mohammed Chrif EL Idrissi

摘要

This study analyzes the temporal trends of extreme precipitation in the Western Rif region of Morocco over 37 years, using data from nine meteorological stations. The Mann–Kendall test was applied to examine trends in various precipitation indices, including Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5D), extreme rainfall (R95P), as well as wet day indices (R10, R20, R25, R30, R50, R80, R100) that help evaluate the frequency and intensity of rainy days over time. To strengthen the analysis, both Sen’s slope and linear regression slope were used to quantify the magnitude and direction of trends. The results indicated that an increase in CDD was directly associated with a decrease in annual precipitation at some stations, highlighting the importance of this index as a key factor controlling annual rainfall. Conversely, the wet day indices showed relative stability at some stations, underscoring their role in maintaining water balance in the region despite variations in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall. Additionally, indices of very extreme rainfall (Rx50, Rx80, Rx100) were analyzed to determine changes in the intensity and frequency of these events over time. The study showed that there is significant spatial and temporal variability in these indices, with a marked increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation at some stations, such as Kouririn, while other stations exhibited stability or a decrease in some indices. This study highlights the importance of the interaction between local and regional climatic factors in shaping precipitation patterns, emphasizing the need for effective adaptation strategies and water resource management to address the increasing impacts of climate change in the region.