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<p>This paper examines the influence of social-cognitive factors such as self-efficacy, locus of control and negative peer pressure on the academic performance and dropout intentions of undergraduate students. To this purpose, an epidemiological modelling framework is employed, of concern being a 4-dimensional model which bears resemblance to a SEI model with two stages of infectivity. Sufficient conditions for the existence and stability of the equilibria are determined in terms of threshold parameters defined ad-hoc, similar in scope, definition and interpretation to the basic reproduction number of an epidemic model. We perform further numerical simulations to support and also explore our theoretical findings. We observe that the model exhibits rich dynamical behavior, such as multiple positive equilibria, backward bifurcations (which means that resit and dropout can become mainstays even if the resit reproduction number is less than one), transcritical bifurcations and Hopf bifurcations leading to oscillatory solutions.</p>

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Off-label use of epidemic modelling: assessing peer influence on academic performance and dropout

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月31日

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  • Paul Georgescu,
  • Hong Zhang,
  • Prashant K. Srivastava

摘要

This paper examines the influence of social-cognitive factors such as self-efficacy, locus of control and negative peer pressure on the academic performance and dropout intentions of undergraduate students. To this purpose, an epidemiological modelling framework is employed, of concern being a 4-dimensional model which bears resemblance to a SEI model with two stages of infectivity. Sufficient conditions for the existence and stability of the equilibria are determined in terms of threshold parameters defined ad-hoc, similar in scope, definition and interpretation to the basic reproduction number of an epidemic model. We perform further numerical simulations to support and also explore our theoretical findings. We observe that the model exhibits rich dynamical behavior, such as multiple positive equilibria, backward bifurcations (which means that resit and dropout can become mainstays even if the resit reproduction number is less than one), transcritical bifurcations and Hopf bifurcations leading to oscillatory solutions.