Zur Entwicklung der Kirchenmitgliedschaft in Deutschland – Eine aktualisierte Alters-Perioden-Kohorten-Analyse mit ALLBUS-Daten 1980–2021

In this study, hierarchical age-period-cohort models are estimated on the probability of being a member of a Christian church based on German General Social Survey data from waves 1980 through 2021 (N = 69,643). A comparison between modified hierarchical age-period-cohort models and earlier estimates indicates that cohort effects were underestimated and period effects overestimated in previous studies. The dominant mechanism of secularization in Germany is thus “cohort replacement.” However, the secularization process has—especially in the old federal states—recently been characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of three processes: Uninterrupted negative cohort effects are accompanied by increasingly negative period effects (from 2014 onward) and a growing decoupling from religious socialization in the parental home in younger cohorts.