Background <p>The demand for outpatient nephrological care in Germany has risen considerably in the past decades.</p> Objective <p>How does the expected development of the utilization of outpatient nephrological treatment compare in relation to the projected trend in personnel supply in nephrology?</p> Material and methods <p>Analysis of the nationwide ambulatory claims data, analysis of the age distribution of active nephrologists and projection of the average working hours of nephrologists based on data from the Federal Register of Physicians (Bundesarztregister).</p> Results <p>Based on the expected changes in population numbers and a&#xa0;projection of treatment data, an increase in the demand for nephrological care by 24% must be expected by the year 2030 compared to 2022. In the same time frame 27% of nephrologists active in 2022 are expected to retire. The average working hours of nephrologists will drop to 92% of the level from 2022 due to the trend towards more doctors working in part time employment instead of having their own practices. Depending on the scenarios in the projection and assuming an estimated 85–100 new nephrologists per year entering the outpatient care sector by 2030 a total of 222–425 nephrologists will be lacking in Germany, in order to maintain the 2022 level of care.</p> Conclusion <p>The increasing utilization of nephrological services over the last 10 years indicates an improvement in outpatient care for patients with chronic kidney disease. Nevertheless, a&#xa0;shortage in the capacity for outpatient nephrological care in Germany is to be expected as early as 2030. If the demand for nephrology care continues to increase, the available new entrants will not be sufficient to compensate for the projected retirements and reductions in working hours of nephrologists.</p>