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Background <p>Professional musicians are particularly vulnerable to work-related health issues, especially musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), due to repetitive movements and physical strain. In addition, respiratory illnesses and mental health conditions, often with longer recovery periods, are common. Monitoring sickness absence is essential for orchestras to implement effective health strategies and reduce economic losses.</p> Objective <p>This study examines the incapacity to work (AU) of professional musicians insured by AOK in Germany, Saxony, and Thuringia from 2015 to 2024 in order to derive trends and forecasts.</p> Methods <p>A&#xa0;descriptive analysis of past case data is combined with time series forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models based on the Box-Jenkins methodology.</p> Results <p>Sick leave rates in Saxony and Thuringia exceed the national average. Female musicians, particularly in Saxony, are more frequently absent and for longer periods. Seasonal patterns are evident, with respiratory illnesses peaking in winter. Alongside MSDs, mental health and digestive disorders are also significant. A&#xa0;total of 51&#xa0;ARIMA models predict a&#xa0;continued rise in cases. The average model accuracy (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE) is 36.4%, indicating acceptable reliability.</p> Conclusion <p>Musicians are less likely to be ill than other employees, which may be due to the predictor of necessary physical activity for balance or to the way shifts are organized. Further studies using the positive deviance approach could help to explore successful behaviors and strategies among professional musicians. Health promotion targeted at orchestras is necessary and increasingly relevant.</p>

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Analyse und Vorhersage von Krankenkassen Arbeitsunfähigkeitsdaten im Berufsfeld Musik: Eine zeitreihenbasierte Studie

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月20日

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  • Verena Schilling,
  • Katharina Hengl,
  • Tom Schaal

摘要

Background

Professional musicians are particularly vulnerable to work-related health issues, especially musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), due to repetitive movements and physical strain. In addition, respiratory illnesses and mental health conditions, often with longer recovery periods, are common. Monitoring sickness absence is essential for orchestras to implement effective health strategies and reduce economic losses.

Objective

This study examines the incapacity to work (AU) of professional musicians insured by AOK in Germany, Saxony, and Thuringia from 2015 to 2024 in order to derive trends and forecasts.

Methods

A descriptive analysis of past case data is combined with time series forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models based on the Box-Jenkins methodology.

Results

Sick leave rates in Saxony and Thuringia exceed the national average. Female musicians, particularly in Saxony, are more frequently absent and for longer periods. Seasonal patterns are evident, with respiratory illnesses peaking in winter. Alongside MSDs, mental health and digestive disorders are also significant. A total of 51 ARIMA models predict a continued rise in cases. The average model accuracy (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE) is 36.4%, indicating acceptable reliability.

Conclusion

Musicians are less likely to be ill than other employees, which may be due to the predictor of necessary physical activity for balance or to the way shifts are organized. Further studies using the positive deviance approach could help to explore successful behaviors and strategies among professional musicians. Health promotion targeted at orchestras is necessary and increasingly relevant.