Development and validation of nomograms to evaluate the survival outcome of HCC patients undergoing selective postoperative adjuvant TACE

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a novel prognostic nomogram to evaluate the survival benefit of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE).

Clinical data of HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy at four medical centers were retrospectively analyzed, including those who received PA-TACE and those who did not. These two categories of patients were randomly allocated to the development and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio.

A total of 1505 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy were included in this study, comprising 723 patients who did not receive PA-TACE and 782 patients who received PA-TACE. Among them, patients who received PA-TACE experienced more adverse events, although these events were mild and manageable (Grade 1–2, all p < 0.05). Nomograms were constructed and validated for patients with and without PA-TACE using independent predictors that influenced disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). These two nomograms had C-indices greater than 0.800 in the development cohort and exhibited good calibration and discrimination ability compared to six conventional HCC staging systems. Patients in the intermediate-to-high-risk group in the nomogram who received PA-TACE had higher DFS and OS (all p < 0.05). In addition, tumor recurrence was significantly controlled in the intermediate-to-high-risk group of patients who received PA-TACE, while there was no significant difference in the low-risk group of patients who received PA-TACE.

The nomograms were developed and validated based on large-scale clinical data and can serve as online decision-making tools to predict survival benefits from PA-TACE in different subgroups of patients.