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<p>Potato (<i>Solanum tuberosum </i>L., Solanales: Solanaceae) is a globally significant crop for food security, nutrition, and rural livelihoods. India is the second-largest producer of potatoes, after China, and the twelfth-largest exporter of potatoes. This study analyses the short-run and long-run relationships between potato production and exports in India using a vector error correction model (VECM) and provides forecasts. The study showed short-term variations and long-run equilibrium between production and exports by analyzing data from 1996 to 2023. It was confirmed by the Johansen cointegration test that there is a strong co-moving relationship over time and, thus, a long-run equilibrium. Further, the vector error correction model indicated that deviations from this equilibrium were slowly corrected through production and export adjustment toward equilibrium. Furthermore, the impulse response function analysis indicated that exports have significant short-term interactions and bidirectional causality. Production and export projections indicate favourable growth, with both production and export expansion, and suggest the potential for India’s potato sector through aligned production and trade policies.</p>

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Modelling the Dynamic Relationship between Production and Exports of Indian Potato: A Vector Error Correction Model-Based Forecasting Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月23日

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  • Teena Lakshmi B.,
  • Sathish Kumar M.,
  • Ganeshkumar D. Rede,
  • Lasithamol Nedumchira L.,
  • Shobi Iva Gundavarapu

摘要

Potato (Solanum tuberosum L., Solanales: Solanaceae) is a globally significant crop for food security, nutrition, and rural livelihoods. India is the second-largest producer of potatoes, after China, and the twelfth-largest exporter of potatoes. This study analyses the short-run and long-run relationships between potato production and exports in India using a vector error correction model (VECM) and provides forecasts. The study showed short-term variations and long-run equilibrium between production and exports by analyzing data from 1996 to 2023. It was confirmed by the Johansen cointegration test that there is a strong co-moving relationship over time and, thus, a long-run equilibrium. Further, the vector error correction model indicated that deviations from this equilibrium were slowly corrected through production and export adjustment toward equilibrium. Furthermore, the impulse response function analysis indicated that exports have significant short-term interactions and bidirectional causality. Production and export projections indicate favourable growth, with both production and export expansion, and suggest the potential for India’s potato sector through aligned production and trade policies.