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<p>One of the most significant crops in the world is potato. This study's objective is to evaluate the sustainability and growth trend of potato production in Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, South Asia, and Western Asia. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) provided the secondary data between 1991 and 2023. To ascertain the growth trend, decomposition analysis, instability index, and sustainability index, the analysis period has been divided into three phases. Results indicate that potato production experienced significant growth during period I (1991–2007), primarily driven by yield improvement except in Central Asia, whereas area expansion dominated while in period II (2008–2023) production of potato has been slowed down across all Asian countries with reliance on the area effect. Instability analysis indicates that variation in potato production has&#xa0;decreased&#xa0;in the entire region in period II reflecting need of improved agricultural practices and infrastructure. Although there is no correlation between low instability and high growth rates of potato production. Sustainability improved during period II compared to period I across all Asian subregions. Furthermore, the study applied&#xa0;ARIMA and Holt linear trend models for forecasting with 80% training and 20% testing data projected up to 2030 by 95 percent accuracy level. In comparison, the ARIMA model was best for prediction in Asia, Central Asia, Southern Eastern Asia, and Western Asia, whereas Holt linear trend model was best&#xa0;in Eastern Asia and South Asia. By the year, the projected potato production would be expected to be 237,225.00 thousand tonnes in Asia, 10,063.83 thousand tonnes in Central Asia, 114,196.00 thousand tonnes in Eastern Asia, 104,650.00 thousand tonnes in South Asia and 11,464.40 thousand tonnes in Western Asia. The findings highlight the need for region-specific interventions to enhance productivity, stability, and sustainability in potato production.</p>

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Sustainable Concern: Potato Production in an Asian Region

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Pradeep Mishra

摘要

One of the most significant crops in the world is potato. This study's objective is to evaluate the sustainability and growth trend of potato production in Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Eastern Asia, South Asia, and Western Asia. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) provided the secondary data between 1991 and 2023. To ascertain the growth trend, decomposition analysis, instability index, and sustainability index, the analysis period has been divided into three phases. Results indicate that potato production experienced significant growth during period I (1991–2007), primarily driven by yield improvement except in Central Asia, whereas area expansion dominated while in period II (2008–2023) production of potato has been slowed down across all Asian countries with reliance on the area effect. Instability analysis indicates that variation in potato production has decreased in the entire region in period II reflecting need of improved agricultural practices and infrastructure. Although there is no correlation between low instability and high growth rates of potato production. Sustainability improved during period II compared to period I across all Asian subregions. Furthermore, the study applied ARIMA and Holt linear trend models for forecasting with 80% training and 20% testing data projected up to 2030 by 95 percent accuracy level. In comparison, the ARIMA model was best for prediction in Asia, Central Asia, Southern Eastern Asia, and Western Asia, whereas Holt linear trend model was best in Eastern Asia and South Asia. By the year, the projected potato production would be expected to be 237,225.00 thousand tonnes in Asia, 10,063.83 thousand tonnes in Central Asia, 114,196.00 thousand tonnes in Eastern Asia, 104,650.00 thousand tonnes in South Asia and 11,464.40 thousand tonnes in Western Asia. The findings highlight the need for region-specific interventions to enhance productivity, stability, and sustainability in potato production.