<p>This manuscript introduces a new Erlang-distributed SEIR model. The model incorporates asymptomatic spread through a subdivided exposed class, distinguishing between asymptomatic (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11538_2025_1416_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\hbox {E}_a$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mtext>E</mtext> <mi>a</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) and symptomatic (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11538_2025_1416_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="16" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="20" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\hbox {E}_s$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mtext>E</mtext> <mi>s</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) cases. The model identifies two key parameters: relative infectiousness, <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11538_2025_1416_Article_IEq3.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="31" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\beta _{{SA}}$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>β</mi> <mrow> <mi mathvariant="italic">SA</mi> </mrow> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and the percentage of people who become asymptomatic after being infected by a symptomatic individual, <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="11538_2025_1416_Article_IEq4.gif" Format="GIF" Height="10" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="13" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$\kappa $</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>κ</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Lower values of these parameters reduce the peak magnitude and duration of the infectious period, highlighting the importance of isolation measures. Additionally, the model underscores the need for strategies addressing both symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions.</p>

Differentiating Contact with Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Infectious Individuals in a SEIR Epidemic Model

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2025年2月4日

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Victoria Chebotaeva,
Anish Srinivasan,
Paula A. Vasquez

摘要

This manuscript introduces a new Erlang-distributed SEIR model. The model incorporates asymptomatic spread through a subdivided exposed class, distinguishing between asymptomatic ( $\hbox {E}_a$ $E_{a}$ ) and symptomatic ( $\hbox {E}_s$ $E_{s}$ ) cases. The model identifies two key parameters: relative infectiousness, $\beta _{{SA}}$ $β_{SA}$ , and the percentage of people who become asymptomatic after being infected by a symptomatic individual, $\kappa $ $κ$ . Lower values of these parameters reduce the peak magnitude and duration of the infectious period, highlighting the importance of isolation measures. Additionally, the model underscores the need for strategies addressing both symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions.