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<p>Despite the reported “warming-wetting” trend, Central Asia faces severe water insecurity due to climate shifts and anthropogenic activities. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing data (GRACE, TRMM, MODIS) with machine learning to analyze drought dynamics from 2003 to 2022 using the Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI). Results reveal significant declines in terrestrial water storage (TWS) particularly in the Tianshan Mountains (−10.20 mm/yr) and the Central Desert (−6.19 mm/yr). Drought severity has intensified since 2014, with 67% of subregions transitioning to moderate drought. Random Forest modeling indicates that drought is no longer solely climate-driven but is increasingly dominated by anthropogenic factors (GDP, urbanization, cropland), which explain over 85% of the variability. Furthermore, the WSDI outperformed traditional indices by identifying 12 major drought events linked to deep aquifer depletion—a “hidden” structural deficit often overlooked by surface-based metrics. These findings challenge the optimistic “warming-wetting” narrative, highlighting the urgent need for storage-based management strategies to address anthropogenic groundwater depletion.</p>

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Multi-source remote sensing unveils hydrological dynamics and drought escalation in Central Asia’s arid regions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月28日

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  • Yuhao Wang,
  • Zhijie Zheng,
  • Guofeng Zhu,
  • Enwei Huang,
  • Gaojia Meng,
  • Siyu Lu,
  • Dongdong Qiu,
  • Longhu Chen,
  • Rui Li,
  • Yinying Jiao,
  • Ling Zhao,
  • Xiaoyu Qi,
  • Qinqin Wang,
  • Wenmin Li,
  • Yuxin Miao,
  • Qingyang Wang

摘要

Despite the reported “warming-wetting” trend, Central Asia faces severe water insecurity due to climate shifts and anthropogenic activities. This study integrates multi-source remote sensing data (GRACE, TRMM, MODIS) with machine learning to analyze drought dynamics from 2003 to 2022 using the Water Storage Deficit Index (WSDI). Results reveal significant declines in terrestrial water storage (TWS) particularly in the Tianshan Mountains (−10.20 mm/yr) and the Central Desert (−6.19 mm/yr). Drought severity has intensified since 2014, with 67% of subregions transitioning to moderate drought. Random Forest modeling indicates that drought is no longer solely climate-driven but is increasingly dominated by anthropogenic factors (GDP, urbanization, cropland), which explain over 85% of the variability. Furthermore, the WSDI outperformed traditional indices by identifying 12 major drought events linked to deep aquifer depletion—a “hidden” structural deficit often overlooked by surface-based metrics. These findings challenge the optimistic “warming-wetting” narrative, highlighting the urgent need for storage-based management strategies to address anthropogenic groundwater depletion.