<p>Understanding the complex interactions among armed conflict events is important for the simulation and prediction of conflict risks. Many studies have suggested that conflict events affect neighbouring regions. Here we find that conflicts exhibit not only localized effects but also significant teleconnections. By applying complex network analysis, the spatiotemporal scale of conflict teleconnections is quantified, revealing a characteristic spatial distance of approximately 1500 km and a rapid propagation delay of about 10 days. Moreover, distinct teleconnection patterns are identified through network coefficients. Eight major hubs, located in South Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, emerge and exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity in their interactions. Furthermore, analysis of the underlying driving mechanisms indicates that differences in teleconnection patterns are likely associated with the flows of energy, materials, and information, with information playing the predominant role in shaping these interactions. These findings provide insights into long-distance interactions in armed conflict, offering a better understanding of conflict risk.</p>

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Revealing global patterns of teleconnections in armed conflict

  • Jun Zhuo,
  • Jiajie Wu,
  • Mengmeng Hao,
  • Fangyu Ding,
  • Shuai Chen,
  • Jiping Dong,
  • Dong Jiang

摘要

Understanding the complex interactions among armed conflict events is important for the simulation and prediction of conflict risks. Many studies have suggested that conflict events affect neighbouring regions. Here we find that conflicts exhibit not only localized effects but also significant teleconnections. By applying complex network analysis, the spatiotemporal scale of conflict teleconnections is quantified, revealing a characteristic spatial distance of approximately 1500 km and a rapid propagation delay of about 10 days. Moreover, distinct teleconnection patterns are identified through network coefficients. Eight major hubs, located in South Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa, emerge and exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity in their interactions. Furthermore, analysis of the underlying driving mechanisms indicates that differences in teleconnection patterns are likely associated with the flows of energy, materials, and information, with information playing the predominant role in shaping these interactions. These findings provide insights into long-distance interactions in armed conflict, offering a better understanding of conflict risk.