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<p>Balancing urbanization with ecological carrying capacity is essential for sustainable urban development. Traditional land use prediction and urban growth boundary (UGB) delineation methods often overlook ecological assessments and fail to address policy conflicts. This study proposes an integrated model combining urban spatial suitability (USS) and ecological carrying capacity (ECC) evaluations with cellular automata (CA) model to improve simulation accuracy and support scenario-based UGB delineation. First, we identify spatial variations in urban development potential under different scenarios by adjusting the weights of USS and ECC. Then, a multi-objective planning model is used to optimize the future land-use structure, maximizing overall benefits. Finally, the development potential and optimized land allocation are incorporated into the CA model to simulate future land use and delineate UGB for each scenario. Results show that integrating USS and ECC evaluations improves simulation accuracy, with the Kappa coefficient increasing from 0.836 (with only USS evaluation) to 0.908 and overall accuracy reaching 94.1%. While the economic development scenario yields the highest economic benefits, a stronger emphasis on ECC produces more compact and spatially organized urban forms, characterized by higher aggregation and lower fragmentation. This framework provides a robust basis for multi-scenario urban simulation and offers valuable guidance for the scientific UGB delineation.</p>

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Multi-objective land use simulation by integrating urban spatial suitability and ecological carrying capacity evaluations

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Zeyin Chen,
  • Siying Li,
  • Zheng Liu,
  • Yixin Huo,
  • Tao Wu,
  • Xingang Zhou

摘要

Balancing urbanization with ecological carrying capacity is essential for sustainable urban development. Traditional land use prediction and urban growth boundary (UGB) delineation methods often overlook ecological assessments and fail to address policy conflicts. This study proposes an integrated model combining urban spatial suitability (USS) and ecological carrying capacity (ECC) evaluations with cellular automata (CA) model to improve simulation accuracy and support scenario-based UGB delineation. First, we identify spatial variations in urban development potential under different scenarios by adjusting the weights of USS and ECC. Then, a multi-objective planning model is used to optimize the future land-use structure, maximizing overall benefits. Finally, the development potential and optimized land allocation are incorporated into the CA model to simulate future land use and delineate UGB for each scenario. Results show that integrating USS and ECC evaluations improves simulation accuracy, with the Kappa coefficient increasing from 0.836 (with only USS evaluation) to 0.908 and overall accuracy reaching 94.1%. While the economic development scenario yields the highest economic benefits, a stronger emphasis on ECC produces more compact and spatially organized urban forms, characterized by higher aggregation and lower fragmentation. This framework provides a robust basis for multi-scenario urban simulation and offers valuable guidance for the scientific UGB delineation.