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<p>Ensuring national food security amidst rapid population growth and increasing extreme weather events remains a critical global challenge. However, the extent to which agricultural modernization in China enhances grain yield and contributes to food security remains unclear. Therefore, using panel data from 327 Chinese cities (2013–2021), this study employs spatial econometric models to analyze the spatial spillover effects of agricultural modernization level (AML) on grain yield and to reveal regional heterogeneity across nine major agricultural zones. The results showed a cumulative grain yield increase of 23.7 million tons, with peak productivity concentrated along the Hu Line and declining eastward and westward. AML also exhibited a steady increase but a clear spatial gradient, decreasing from coastal to inland regions, with the highest level observed in Southern China (SC). A key finding was that a 1% increase in AML directly raised local grain yield by an average of 4.185%, accompanied by significant positive spillover effects on neighboring regions. Regional variations revealed distinct patterns: the direct effects of AML were more pronounced in southern and eastern zones, while spillover effects dominated in northern and western zones. The largest positive direct impact of AML on grain yield was observed in the SC (8.499%), while Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain ranked second but exhibited the strongest positive spatial spillover effect (4.534%). These findings highlight the critical role of agricultural modernization in promoting grain production and provide a solid basis for optimizing regional agricultural systems, ensuring food security, and advancing sustainable agriculture.</p>

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Uneven gains from agricultural modernization: Spatial spillover effects and regional heterogeneity of grain yield in China’s nine major agricultural zones

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月18日

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  • Jiale Liang,
  • Sipei Pan,
  • Nan Xia,
  • Zhenkang Wang,
  • Wanxu Chen,
  • Manchun Li

摘要

Ensuring national food security amidst rapid population growth and increasing extreme weather events remains a critical global challenge. However, the extent to which agricultural modernization in China enhances grain yield and contributes to food security remains unclear. Therefore, using panel data from 327 Chinese cities (2013–2021), this study employs spatial econometric models to analyze the spatial spillover effects of agricultural modernization level (AML) on grain yield and to reveal regional heterogeneity across nine major agricultural zones. The results showed a cumulative grain yield increase of 23.7 million tons, with peak productivity concentrated along the Hu Line and declining eastward and westward. AML also exhibited a steady increase but a clear spatial gradient, decreasing from coastal to inland regions, with the highest level observed in Southern China (SC). A key finding was that a 1% increase in AML directly raised local grain yield by an average of 4.185%, accompanied by significant positive spillover effects on neighboring regions. Regional variations revealed distinct patterns: the direct effects of AML were more pronounced in southern and eastern zones, while spillover effects dominated in northern and western zones. The largest positive direct impact of AML on grain yield was observed in the SC (8.499%), while Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain ranked second but exhibited the strongest positive spatial spillover effect (4.534%). These findings highlight the critical role of agricultural modernization in promoting grain production and provide a solid basis for optimizing regional agricultural systems, ensuring food security, and advancing sustainable agriculture.