What are the policy effects of implementing a national strategic plan pertaining to territorial functional zoning? An empirical study from Sichuan province
摘要
The concept of land use multifunctionality (LUMF) is fundamental to national spatial zoning, with its main functions evolving in response to socio-economic development. In this dynamic, maintaining alignment between the actual and the planned main functions is essential for effective spatial planning. This study centers on Sichuan province, where the entropy weight-TOPSIS model was utilized to delineate the spatiotemporal distribution of LUMF and a mechanical equilibrium model was applied to evaluate functional coordination. This approach facilitated an examination of the congruence between the actual and planned main functions. Discrepancy was identified and subsequently excluded from the analysis. Building on this foundation, the propensity score matching–difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) model was employed to quantitatively assess the policy impacts within the matched areas. Key Findings: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the average increase in urban development functions was 10.4, with a decrease in intensity from the urban periphery outward; ecological conservation functions experienced an increase of 1.53, while agricultural functions exhibited a slight decline. (2) Overall, functional coordination showed improvement across 80.32% of the studied areas. However, coordination diminished in key development areas, whereas it was strengthened in agricultural and ecological areas. (3) In 28 counties, a divergence between planned and actual functions was observed, primarily characterized by a focus on agricultural production in key development areas. (4) The planning processes bolstered urban development and ecological conservation functions but exerted limited influence on the major agricultural production areas. The findings provide empirical support for spatial coordination, land allocation, and policy development.