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<p>This study investigates climate- and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River–Khyargas Lake Basin, a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia. Using Mann-Kendall, innovative trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimation methods, historical climate trends (1980–2100) were analyzed, while land cover changes represented human impacts. Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Tank model. Results show that during the past 40 years, air temperature significantly increased (Z=3.93***), while precipitation (Z=−1.54*) and river flow (Z=−1.73*) both declined. The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly (Z=−5.57***). Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity. Under the SSP1.26 scenario, which assumes minimal climate change, air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0°C, precipitation by 21.8 mm, and river discharge by 1.61 m<sup>3</sup>/s between 2000 and 2100. These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin, highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia’s water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.</p>

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Climate and human drivers of surface water changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin, western Mongolia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月28日

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  • Dorjsuren Batsuren,
  • A. Zemtsov Valery,
  • Bavuu Erdenebayar,
  • Dorligjav Sandelger,
  • Denghua Yan,
  • Hongkai Gao,
  • Enkhbold Altanbold

摘要

This study investigates climate- and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River–Khyargas Lake Basin, a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia. Using Mann-Kendall, innovative trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimation methods, historical climate trends (1980–2100) were analyzed, while land cover changes represented human impacts. Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Tank model. Results show that during the past 40 years, air temperature significantly increased (Z=3.93***), while precipitation (Z=−1.54*) and river flow (Z=−1.73*) both declined. The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly (Z=−5.57***). Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity. Under the SSP1.26 scenario, which assumes minimal climate change, air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0°C, precipitation by 21.8 mm, and river discharge by 1.61 m3/s between 2000 and 2100. These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin, highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia’s water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.