Multidimensional and multiscenario assessment for cropland supply–demand matches and sustainable development zoning
摘要
With the rapid advancement of global socio-economy and mounting environmental and ecological risks, China faces challenges in ensuring its food security and sustainable development, which further affects global food trade and security. This study aims to identify the supply–demand match between cropland supply and food consumption and to evaluate sustainable cropland zoning in multiple scenarios and multidimensional assessments. This study uses ecological, environmental and socioeconomic data to quantify diverse food demand patterns into corresponding cropland demands, further mapping the spatio-temporal characteristics of China’s cropland supply–demand matches. By utilizing shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), this study delineates multiple scenarios to determine the supply–demand of cropland across different Chinese regions from 2030 to 2050. On the basis of ecological, geographical and socioeconomic datasets, this study constructs a multidimensional and multiscenario framework for sustainable agricultural zoning from 2030 to 2050 and proposes a future sustainable agricultural development strategy for each region in different periods. The results indicate that between 2002 and 2022, there was a significant gap between cropland supply and demand. Moreover, an obvious spatial mismatch is observed between cropland supply and demand across various Chinese regions. From 2030 to 2050, there is a noticeable shift in the spatial distribution of cropland supply and demand, with the supply–demand match becoming more strained and varying considerably under different development scenarios. With significant differences between different development scenarios, different regions will have to adopt different development strategies at different periods. This study proposes a multiscenario and multidimensional simulation framework for future agricultural sustainable zoning, which aims to provide scientific insights and policy improvements to promote sustainable agricultural development.