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<p>Focusing on investment security along the Belt and Road (B&amp;R) routes, this study analyzes the geopolitical environment (GE) of countries (regions) along the B&amp;R routes from two dimensions: political and business environment (PBE) and political orientation. The results show that since the proposal of the B&amp;R Initiative in 2013, the PBE of these countries (regions) has shown slight improvement but with significant spatial disparities, presenting a pattern of better conditions in the eastern and western regions and poorer conditions in the central regions. There is no strong spatial dependence in the PBE among these countries (regions), but a weak homogenization trend toward improvement is observed. Low-scoring countries (regions) are mainly located in former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Middle East, and the Indochina Peninsula. These countries (regions) exhibit weak interconnections, demonstrating a characteristic of “similarity without harmony.” (a Confucian concept describing nations sharing superficial traits but lacking substantive cooperation). Therefore, the B&amp;R construction should adopt a clustered and contiguous breakthrough strategy. The evaluation of political orientation reveals significant political divergence among B&amp;R countries (regions), with varying attitudes toward China. Moreover, as pro-China sentiment increases, the PBE tends to deteriorate. This negative correlation suggests that countries (regions) actively engaging in the B&amp;R Initiative generally face political instability and economic underdevelopment, and seek to leverage the B&amp;R Initiative for domestic growth. Consequently, while prioritizing investment security, it is important for the B&amp;R construction to actively promote Chinese values in order to garner support and participation from countries (regions) with more favorable PBE. Given the generally underdeveloped PBE and political polarization among B&amp;R countries (regions), China urgently needs to develop a geopolitical theory aligned with the B&amp;R’s geopolitical model to safeguard its advancement. Simultaneously, China should reshape geopolitical narratives to reclaim discourse power in political interpretation. This study provides preliminary insights into cross-country (regional) political polarization and contributes to advancing GE research.</p>

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Evaluation of geopolitical environment along the Belt and Road routes

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月15日

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  • Fangqu Niu,
  • Bingcheng Xuan

摘要

Focusing on investment security along the Belt and Road (B&R) routes, this study analyzes the geopolitical environment (GE) of countries (regions) along the B&R routes from two dimensions: political and business environment (PBE) and political orientation. The results show that since the proposal of the B&R Initiative in 2013, the PBE of these countries (regions) has shown slight improvement but with significant spatial disparities, presenting a pattern of better conditions in the eastern and western regions and poorer conditions in the central regions. There is no strong spatial dependence in the PBE among these countries (regions), but a weak homogenization trend toward improvement is observed. Low-scoring countries (regions) are mainly located in former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Middle East, and the Indochina Peninsula. These countries (regions) exhibit weak interconnections, demonstrating a characteristic of “similarity without harmony.” (a Confucian concept describing nations sharing superficial traits but lacking substantive cooperation). Therefore, the B&R construction should adopt a clustered and contiguous breakthrough strategy. The evaluation of political orientation reveals significant political divergence among B&R countries (regions), with varying attitudes toward China. Moreover, as pro-China sentiment increases, the PBE tends to deteriorate. This negative correlation suggests that countries (regions) actively engaging in the B&R Initiative generally face political instability and economic underdevelopment, and seek to leverage the B&R Initiative for domestic growth. Consequently, while prioritizing investment security, it is important for the B&R construction to actively promote Chinese values in order to garner support and participation from countries (regions) with more favorable PBE. Given the generally underdeveloped PBE and political polarization among B&R countries (regions), China urgently needs to develop a geopolitical theory aligned with the B&R’s geopolitical model to safeguard its advancement. Simultaneously, China should reshape geopolitical narratives to reclaim discourse power in political interpretation. This study provides preliminary insights into cross-country (regional) political polarization and contributes to advancing GE research.