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<p>Soil erosion (SE) is a critical form of land degradation that significantly threatens the health of terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. The Qinba Mountains represent a vital geo-ecological transition zone in China. Therefore, analyzing the dynamics of SE in relation to climate changes and land use/cover (LULC) change is essential for guiding ecological conservation efforts in this region. The soil erosion intensity (SEI) from 2001 to 2020 was estimated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). For the period of 2021–2040, SEI projections were made based on CMIP6 data, utilizing the Statistical Downscaling Model alongside the CA-Markov model. Variations in SEI under four distinct shared socio-economic pathways were compared. Additionally, statistical methods were employed to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate and LULC change on SE. Findings indicate that between 2021 and 2040, both precipitation and rainfall erosivity are expected to increase by approximately 8%–12% and 3%–14%, respectively. Based on differing socio-economic pathways, the soil erosion rate (SER) is predicted to rise by 12%–32%, with SSP2-4.5 anticipated to result in the highest SER. An analysis of contributing factors revealed that precipitation intensity and total precipitation are likely to escalate SE, while elevated temperatures may mitigate it. Among all types of LULC, barren land is particularly susceptible to erosion and remains a priority for conservation. The generated SEI maps will aid in promoting sustainable land use and provide crucial support for mitigating ecological risks from climate change.</p>

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Effects of climate and land use/cover change on soil erosion in the Qinba Mountains

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月15日

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  • Yanhong Li,
  • Yuhan Jin,
  • Wanying Wang,
  • Wenbo Zhu

摘要

Soil erosion (SE) is a critical form of land degradation that significantly threatens the health of terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. The Qinba Mountains represent a vital geo-ecological transition zone in China. Therefore, analyzing the dynamics of SE in relation to climate changes and land use/cover (LULC) change is essential for guiding ecological conservation efforts in this region. The soil erosion intensity (SEI) from 2001 to 2020 was estimated using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). For the period of 2021–2040, SEI projections were made based on CMIP6 data, utilizing the Statistical Downscaling Model alongside the CA-Markov model. Variations in SEI under four distinct shared socio-economic pathways were compared. Additionally, statistical methods were employed to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate and LULC change on SE. Findings indicate that between 2021 and 2040, both precipitation and rainfall erosivity are expected to increase by approximately 8%–12% and 3%–14%, respectively. Based on differing socio-economic pathways, the soil erosion rate (SER) is predicted to rise by 12%–32%, with SSP2-4.5 anticipated to result in the highest SER. An analysis of contributing factors revealed that precipitation intensity and total precipitation are likely to escalate SE, while elevated temperatures may mitigate it. Among all types of LULC, barren land is particularly susceptible to erosion and remains a priority for conservation. The generated SEI maps will aid in promoting sustainable land use and provide crucial support for mitigating ecological risks from climate change.