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<p>Tropical cyclone activity has undergone significant changes under the impact of global warming since the 20th century. However, the characteristic and trend changes of landfalling tropical cyclones over China still need to be further clarified. The study conducted an analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of landfalling tropical cyclones over China from 1949 to 2022 using the dataset of the best tracks of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration. Additionally, we explored the influences of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on landfalling tropical cyclone activities. The results indicate that: (1) The annual average number of landfalling tropical cyclones over China is approximately 8.85, showing a significant decreasing trend, and the decreasing range becomes larger with lower latitude overall. However, both the proportion of landfalling tropical cyclones to the total number and the percentage of higher intensity tropical cyclones increase. (2) The landfall locations of tropical cyclones in China are mainly concentrated between 18°N and 26°N, accounting for approximately 88.2% of the total, and the landfall frequency shows a sharp decline in the regions north of 30°N. The central landfall location of tropical cyclones has shifted significantly northwestward, moving closer to China. Compared to 1949–1969, the central genesis location from 2010 to 2022 shifted 4.5° westward and 2.0° northward. (3) There is a correlation between ENSO and the genesis frequency variation of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and landfalling over China. El Niño promotes the genesis of strong tropical cyclones and leads to a more southeastern bias in the genesis location of landfalling tropical cyclones, while La Niña has an opposite effect. The PDO also affects the tropical cyclones to a certain extent. During the PDO warm phase, the genesis position of tropical cyclones is westward and the number is smaller than that in the cold phase. This study further clarifies the changing trends and characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones over China since 1949. It also highlights the impacts of ENSO and the PDO on tropical cyclone activities. The findings can serve as a scientific basis for conducting simulations and assessments of tropical cyclones and for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.</p>

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Increasing threat from landfalling tropical cyclones over China due to their characteristic changes (1949–2022)

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月15日

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  • Shanfeng He,
  • Zheng Li,
  • Aiqing Feng,
  • Wei Wang,
  • Yunjia Ma,
  • Shaohong Wu

摘要

Tropical cyclone activity has undergone significant changes under the impact of global warming since the 20th century. However, the characteristic and trend changes of landfalling tropical cyclones over China still need to be further clarified. The study conducted an analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of landfalling tropical cyclones over China from 1949 to 2022 using the dataset of the best tracks of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration. Additionally, we explored the influences of ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on landfalling tropical cyclone activities. The results indicate that: (1) The annual average number of landfalling tropical cyclones over China is approximately 8.85, showing a significant decreasing trend, and the decreasing range becomes larger with lower latitude overall. However, both the proportion of landfalling tropical cyclones to the total number and the percentage of higher intensity tropical cyclones increase. (2) The landfall locations of tropical cyclones in China are mainly concentrated between 18°N and 26°N, accounting for approximately 88.2% of the total, and the landfall frequency shows a sharp decline in the regions north of 30°N. The central landfall location of tropical cyclones has shifted significantly northwestward, moving closer to China. Compared to 1949–1969, the central genesis location from 2010 to 2022 shifted 4.5° westward and 2.0° northward. (3) There is a correlation between ENSO and the genesis frequency variation of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and landfalling over China. El Niño promotes the genesis of strong tropical cyclones and leads to a more southeastern bias in the genesis location of landfalling tropical cyclones, while La Niña has an opposite effect. The PDO also affects the tropical cyclones to a certain extent. During the PDO warm phase, the genesis position of tropical cyclones is westward and the number is smaller than that in the cold phase. This study further clarifies the changing trends and characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones over China since 1949. It also highlights the impacts of ENSO and the PDO on tropical cyclone activities. The findings can serve as a scientific basis for conducting simulations and assessments of tropical cyclones and for disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.