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<p>Ecosystem services in urban agglomerations are the environmental conditions under which human survival and development are sustained. Quantitative assessment of ecosystem services and complex interactions can contribute positively to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for urban agglomerations. However, studies on the future contribution of multi-scenario ecosystem services to the SDGS are lacking. We propose novel integrated modeling framework that integrates the CLUES, InVEST, SOM, and GWR approaches to address the complex relationship between ecosystem services over a long “past-present-future” time series. We construct a novel ecosystem service bundle-based approach for measuring urban agglomerations progress towards achieving ecologically relevant sustainable development goals at multiple scales. In the future scenario, the water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil conservation (SC) show similar spatial patterns, with comparable spatial grids, while carbon stock (CS) remains predominantly unchanged and the ecological protection scenario (EPS) improves more significantly. The high-synergy regions are mainly distributed in bundle 4, and most of the trade-off regions appear in bundles 1 and 2. Over the last 30 years, all but the water-related SDGs are declining in bundle 1 of the two urban agglomerations, which are 15% higher in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf (GBG) than in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). From 2020 to 2035, the three scenarios demonstrate that the optimization of the SDGs progresses most effectively under the future ecological protection scenario (EPS). In particular, bundles 3 and 4 are significantly improved. This critical new knowledge can be used in sustainable ecosystem management and decision-making in urban agglomerations.</p>

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Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem services under multiple future scenarios to assess the progress of Sustainable Development Goals implementation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月28日

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  • Ze Zhang,
  • Weiguo Jiang,
  • Ziyan Ling,
  • Kaifeng Peng,
  • Zhifeng Wu,
  • Zhuo Li

摘要

Ecosystem services in urban agglomerations are the environmental conditions under which human survival and development are sustained. Quantitative assessment of ecosystem services and complex interactions can contribute positively to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for urban agglomerations. However, studies on the future contribution of multi-scenario ecosystem services to the SDGS are lacking. We propose novel integrated modeling framework that integrates the CLUES, InVEST, SOM, and GWR approaches to address the complex relationship between ecosystem services over a long “past-present-future” time series. We construct a novel ecosystem service bundle-based approach for measuring urban agglomerations progress towards achieving ecologically relevant sustainable development goals at multiple scales. In the future scenario, the water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil conservation (SC) show similar spatial patterns, with comparable spatial grids, while carbon stock (CS) remains predominantly unchanged and the ecological protection scenario (EPS) improves more significantly. The high-synergy regions are mainly distributed in bundle 4, and most of the trade-off regions appear in bundles 1 and 2. Over the last 30 years, all but the water-related SDGs are declining in bundle 1 of the two urban agglomerations, which are 15% higher in the Guangxi Beibu Gulf (GBG) than in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). From 2020 to 2035, the three scenarios demonstrate that the optimization of the SDGs progresses most effectively under the future ecological protection scenario (EPS). In particular, bundles 3 and 4 are significantly improved. This critical new knowledge can be used in sustainable ecosystem management and decision-making in urban agglomerations.