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<p>Emphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change, with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally. For Poland, which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers, such an approach has not been implemented to date. This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict river temperature changes. Random Forest performed best, with <i>R</i><sup>2</sup>=0.88 and lowest error (RMSE: 2.25, MAE:1.72). The range of future water temperature changes by the end of the 21st century was based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. It was determined that by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature will increase by 2.1°C (SSP2-4.5) and 3.7°C (SSP5-8.5). A more detailed analysis, divided by two major basins Vistula and Odra, covered about 90% of Poland’s territory. The average temperature increase, according to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the Odra basin rivers, is 1.6°C and 3.2°C and for the Vistula basin rivers 2.3°C and 3.8°C, respectively. The Vistula basin’s higher warming is due to less groundwater input and continental climate influence. These findings provide a crucial basis for water management to mitigate warming effects in Poland.</p>

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Rivers increasingly warmer: Prediction of changes in the thermal regime of rivers in Poland

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月11日

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  • Mariusz Ptak,
  • Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen,
  • Mariusz Sojka

摘要

Emphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change, with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally. For Poland, which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers, such an approach has not been implemented to date. This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict river temperature changes. Random Forest performed best, with R2=0.88 and lowest error (RMSE: 2.25, MAE:1.72). The range of future water temperature changes by the end of the 21st century was based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. It was determined that by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature will increase by 2.1°C (SSP2-4.5) and 3.7°C (SSP5-8.5). A more detailed analysis, divided by two major basins Vistula and Odra, covered about 90% of Poland’s territory. The average temperature increase, according to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the Odra basin rivers, is 1.6°C and 3.2°C and for the Vistula basin rivers 2.3°C and 3.8°C, respectively. The Vistula basin’s higher warming is due to less groundwater input and continental climate influence. These findings provide a crucial basis for water management to mitigate warming effects in Poland.