Enhancing flood risk assessment in northern Morocco with tuned machine learning and advanced geospatial techniques

Mapping floods is crucial for effective disaster management. This study focuses on flood assessment in northern Morocco, specifically Tangier, Tetouan, and Larache. Due to the lack of a comprehensive flood inventory map, we used unsupervised learning techniques, such as K-means clustering and fuzzy logic algorithms, to predict flood-prone areas. We identified nine conditioning factors influencing flood risk: elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, land use, soil type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and topographic position index (TPI). Using Landsat-8 imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) within a Geographic Information System (GIS), we analyzed topographic and geo-environmental variables. K-means clustering achieved silhouette scores of 0.66 in Tangier and 0.70 in Tetouan, while the fuzzy logic method in Larache produced a Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI) score of 0.35. The maps classified flood risk levels into low, moderate, and high categories. This research demonstrates the integration of machine learning and remote sensing for predicting flood-prone areas without existing flood inventory maps. Our findings highlight the main factors contributing to flash floods and assess their impact, enhancing the understanding of flood dynamics and improving flood management strategies in vulnerable regions.