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<p>High-grade wide embankments in permafrost regions are paved with dark asphalt, resulting in a dark pavement surface. This dark surface enhances heat absorption and induces the pot cover effect (PCE), collectively exacerbating thermal-moisture hazards in the underlying permafrost. To investigate the hydro-thermal-deformation mechanisms of the embankment under such conditions, we derived a thaw-consolidation equation that captures the compressibility of thawing permafrost, and integrated it with frost heave theory, the Nishihara creep model, and moisture-heat transport mechanisms to establish a novel coupled thermo-hydro-vapor-mechanical (THVM) model. This model uniquely accounts for the simultaneous effects of thaw consolidation, creep, and frost heave, overcoming the limitations of existing models that overlook the transitional consolidation zone in warm permafrost. After validation against field monitoring data from the Beiluhe test embankment, this model was further applied to simulate the long-term (20-year) thermo-hydro-vapor-mechanical coupling evolution of the permafrost embankment. The results demonstrate that the established THVM coupled model effectively characterizes the migration processes of both liquid water and water vapor, as well as the associated consolidation deformation. Meanwhile, with increasing freeze–thaw cycles, the permafrost embankment settlement exhibits a stepwise development pattern. Specifically, over the 20-year simulation period, the total accumulated settlement reaches 100&#xa0;cm, with 80&#xa0;cm (80% of total) due to thaw-induced consolidation and 20&#xa0;cm (20%) from thermal creep induced by permafrost warming. Additionally, under the influence of the PCE, frost heave deformation in permafrost embankments is predominantly governed by thermo-hydro coupling processes. This is manifested as continuously increasing frost heave displacement and significant moisture redistribution, with water content in the upper embankment increasing by 4.6 ~ 8.2% and frost heave magnitude reaching 5.5 times the initial value by the 20th year. The quantitative of 80% consolidation versus 20% creep contributions underscores the necessity of prioritizing thaw consolidation in embankment design, and implies that effective mitigation should combine thermal stabilization (e.g., cooling measures) with drainage control to limit moisture accumulation and associated frost heave. This study quantifies for the first time the significant and escalating role of the PCE in frost heave progression, highlighting the need for combined thermal and vapor-control measures in permafrost embankment design.</p>

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A deformation prediction model of high-grade embankments on permafrost considering the pot cover effect

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Mingli Zhang,
  • Ruiling Zhang,
  • Yuefeng Liu,
  • Yaling Chou,
  • Hongbo Liu,
  • Zhi Wen

摘要

High-grade wide embankments in permafrost regions are paved with dark asphalt, resulting in a dark pavement surface. This dark surface enhances heat absorption and induces the pot cover effect (PCE), collectively exacerbating thermal-moisture hazards in the underlying permafrost. To investigate the hydro-thermal-deformation mechanisms of the embankment under such conditions, we derived a thaw-consolidation equation that captures the compressibility of thawing permafrost, and integrated it with frost heave theory, the Nishihara creep model, and moisture-heat transport mechanisms to establish a novel coupled thermo-hydro-vapor-mechanical (THVM) model. This model uniquely accounts for the simultaneous effects of thaw consolidation, creep, and frost heave, overcoming the limitations of existing models that overlook the transitional consolidation zone in warm permafrost. After validation against field monitoring data from the Beiluhe test embankment, this model was further applied to simulate the long-term (20-year) thermo-hydro-vapor-mechanical coupling evolution of the permafrost embankment. The results demonstrate that the established THVM coupled model effectively characterizes the migration processes of both liquid water and water vapor, as well as the associated consolidation deformation. Meanwhile, with increasing freeze–thaw cycles, the permafrost embankment settlement exhibits a stepwise development pattern. Specifically, over the 20-year simulation period, the total accumulated settlement reaches 100 cm, with 80 cm (80% of total) due to thaw-induced consolidation and 20 cm (20%) from thermal creep induced by permafrost warming. Additionally, under the influence of the PCE, frost heave deformation in permafrost embankments is predominantly governed by thermo-hydro coupling processes. This is manifested as continuously increasing frost heave displacement and significant moisture redistribution, with water content in the upper embankment increasing by 4.6 ~ 8.2% and frost heave magnitude reaching 5.5 times the initial value by the 20th year. The quantitative of 80% consolidation versus 20% creep contributions underscores the necessity of prioritizing thaw consolidation in embankment design, and implies that effective mitigation should combine thermal stabilization (e.g., cooling measures) with drainage control to limit moisture accumulation and associated frost heave. This study quantifies for the first time the significant and escalating role of the PCE in frost heave progression, highlighting the need for combined thermal and vapor-control measures in permafrost embankment design.