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<p>Ensuring the long-term stability of polar infrastructure requires a rigorous understanding of the coupling between ground deformation and geotechnical conditions. However, the deformation mechanisms of periglacial landforms and their engineering risks remain poorly quantified. In this study, we conducted a forensic geotechnical assessment on Horseshoe Island, Antarctica, to identify a stable site for the Turkish Polar Research Institute. Methodologically, we integrated in situ engineering geological mapping with a multi-temporal remote sensing framework. We utilized SBAS-InSAR (2022–2023) to derive high-resolution surface displacement fields, applied seasonal-trend decomposition using loess (STL) to isolate long-term creep trends from seasonal fluctuations, and employed wavelet coherence analysis to quantify the thermal–mechanical coupling of the active layer. Our analysis reveals significant spatial heterogeneity driven by subsurface geology. The STL results indicate that while bedrock areas exhibit purely seasonal elastic responses, debris-covered zones are dominated by linear subsidence. Wavelet analysis identified a consistent 36-45 days thermal lag, serving as a quantitative proxy for the active layer's thermal buffering capacity. To translate these observations into engineering criteria, we calculated the angular distortion (<i>β</i>). Results show that talus deposits exhibit a critical <i>β</i> ≈1/148, posing a catastrophic risk of shear failure. Consequently, we project a 30-year cumulative settlement exceeding 1.5&#xa0;m for these zones. This research demonstrates that while bedrock sites offer stable foundations, talus zones are geotechnically unsuitable, providing a vital quantitative framework for polar site selection.</p>

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Forensic polar surface deformation monitoring at Horseshoe Island, Antarctica using SBAS-InSAR and temperature correlation using wavelet analysis

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月24日

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  • Lang Fu,
  • Evrim Celik Madenli,
  • John Bridgeman,
  • Hyungjoon Seo

摘要

Ensuring the long-term stability of polar infrastructure requires a rigorous understanding of the coupling between ground deformation and geotechnical conditions. However, the deformation mechanisms of periglacial landforms and their engineering risks remain poorly quantified. In this study, we conducted a forensic geotechnical assessment on Horseshoe Island, Antarctica, to identify a stable site for the Turkish Polar Research Institute. Methodologically, we integrated in situ engineering geological mapping with a multi-temporal remote sensing framework. We utilized SBAS-InSAR (2022–2023) to derive high-resolution surface displacement fields, applied seasonal-trend decomposition using loess (STL) to isolate long-term creep trends from seasonal fluctuations, and employed wavelet coherence analysis to quantify the thermal–mechanical coupling of the active layer. Our analysis reveals significant spatial heterogeneity driven by subsurface geology. The STL results indicate that while bedrock areas exhibit purely seasonal elastic responses, debris-covered zones are dominated by linear subsidence. Wavelet analysis identified a consistent 36-45 days thermal lag, serving as a quantitative proxy for the active layer's thermal buffering capacity. To translate these observations into engineering criteria, we calculated the angular distortion (β). Results show that talus deposits exhibit a critical β ≈1/148, posing a catastrophic risk of shear failure. Consequently, we project a 30-year cumulative settlement exceeding 1.5 m for these zones. This research demonstrates that while bedrock sites offer stable foundations, talus zones are geotechnically unsuitable, providing a vital quantitative framework for polar site selection.