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<p>The Lancang-Mekong River (LMR) is a vital transboundary water source in Southeast Asia, supporting ∼70 million people who depend on its streamflow for water, food, and energy. Understanding the multi-decadal and centennial-scale variability in streamflow across the LMR basin is critical for reservoir planning and effective management, as well as for mitigating the risks of droughts and floods that could exacerbate transboundary conflicts. This study reconstructs basin-wide streamflow from 1000 to 2012 CE using a spatiotemporally complete paleoclimate record of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index over the Asia monsoon region. A log-linear regression model, integrated with a dimension reduction method, was developed and validated across eight gauging stations in the LMR basin, demonstrating robust performance. Our analysis identifies three regional patterns of streamflow variability across the basin over the past millennium. Significant periodic oscillations are observed in the 2–4, 20–40, 60–128, and ∼150 year frequency bands. Associations between low-frequency variability and large-scale climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian Ocean Dipole, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are also detected. The PDO emerges as the dominant driver of centennial-scale streamflow variability in the LMR basin. By extending fifty-year instrumental records to millennial-scale data, this study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of streamflow variability and climate teleconnections at decadal to centennial timescales, thereby enhancing our understanding of the long-term water resource risks faced by the riparian countries.</p>

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Spatiotemporal variability of streamflow in the Lancang-Mekong River basin over the past millennium

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月27日

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  • Yenan Wu,
  • Di Long,
  • Jinling Quan,
  • Honggang Li,
  • Yi Zhou,
  • Zhen Guan,
  • Xingwu Duan

摘要

The Lancang-Mekong River (LMR) is a vital transboundary water source in Southeast Asia, supporting ∼70 million people who depend on its streamflow for water, food, and energy. Understanding the multi-decadal and centennial-scale variability in streamflow across the LMR basin is critical for reservoir planning and effective management, as well as for mitigating the risks of droughts and floods that could exacerbate transboundary conflicts. This study reconstructs basin-wide streamflow from 1000 to 2012 CE using a spatiotemporally complete paleoclimate record of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index over the Asia monsoon region. A log-linear regression model, integrated with a dimension reduction method, was developed and validated across eight gauging stations in the LMR basin, demonstrating robust performance. Our analysis identifies three regional patterns of streamflow variability across the basin over the past millennium. Significant periodic oscillations are observed in the 2–4, 20–40, 60–128, and ∼150 year frequency bands. Associations between low-frequency variability and large-scale climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Indian Ocean Dipole, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are also detected. The PDO emerges as the dominant driver of centennial-scale streamflow variability in the LMR basin. By extending fifty-year instrumental records to millennial-scale data, this study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of streamflow variability and climate teleconnections at decadal to centennial timescales, thereby enhancing our understanding of the long-term water resource risks faced by the riparian countries.