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<p>Global winter temperatures show pronounced interdecadal variability compared to other seasons, yet the main modulators at a global scale remain unclear. We strengthened the signal of interdecadal winter temperature variability by eliminating the high-frequency signal driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our analysis, using observations and simulations, identifies Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in the East China Sea as a key driver of global interdecadal winter temperature anomalies. We introduce the East China Sea Mode (ECSM), a winter-specific mode that significantly influences global winter temperatures. The East China Sea, adjacent to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) area, is a critical region impacted by this monsoon system. The ECSM induces global winter temperature anomalies by modulating the dominant interdecadal atmospheric teleconnections, positioned within a crucial area of the teleconnection wave train. Notably, the influence of the ECSM extends beyond the typical range of influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with the combined effects of ECSM and PDO shaping temperature patterns across Eurasia, North America, and parts of the Southern Hemisphere. This study highlights the critical role of SSTs in the East China Sea in affecting winter temperature variability, which complements the traditional focus on the eastern part as represented by the PDO.</p>

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Interdecadal winter temperature variability driven by the East China Sea Mode: A global perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Keyan Fang,
  • Hao Wu,
  • Shuheng Lin,
  • Jun Cheng,
  • Jane Liu,
  • Deliang Chen,
  • Jinbao Li,
  • Cesar Azorin-Molina,
  • Zheng Zhao,
  • Frode Stordal,
  • Shuo Hao,
  • Nicole Davi,
  • Tinghai Ou,
  • Hang Xing,
  • Fahu Chen

摘要

Global winter temperatures show pronounced interdecadal variability compared to other seasons, yet the main modulators at a global scale remain unclear. We strengthened the signal of interdecadal winter temperature variability by eliminating the high-frequency signal driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our analysis, using observations and simulations, identifies Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability in the East China Sea as a key driver of global interdecadal winter temperature anomalies. We introduce the East China Sea Mode (ECSM), a winter-specific mode that significantly influences global winter temperatures. The East China Sea, adjacent to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) area, is a critical region impacted by this monsoon system. The ECSM induces global winter temperature anomalies by modulating the dominant interdecadal atmospheric teleconnections, positioned within a crucial area of the teleconnection wave train. Notably, the influence of the ECSM extends beyond the typical range of influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), with the combined effects of ECSM and PDO shaping temperature patterns across Eurasia, North America, and parts of the Southern Hemisphere. This study highlights the critical role of SSTs in the East China Sea in affecting winter temperature variability, which complements the traditional focus on the eastern part as represented by the PDO.