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<p>Extreme precipitation and lightning strikes exert substantial economic losses and human casualties. Under climate change, the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events are projected to change significantly. Based on data from 345 meteorological stations across China from 1979 to 2013, this study examines the relationship between extreme precipitation and thunderstorm days. In China, thunderstorm days account for over 50% of extreme precipitation frequency at almost all stations, with contributions exceeding 80% in south coastal areas. Thunderstorm-related precipitation extremes exhibit significant increasing trends in terms of frequency, total amount, and daily maximum in southern and eastern China, while the corresponding general extreme precipitation indices increase slightly. In contrast, non-thunderstorm-related extreme precipitation indices exhibit significant and widespread decreasing trends across most parts of China. Such differences reveal the dominant role of thunderstorms in driving the observed increases in extreme precipitation. Furthermore, extreme precipitation indices show significant interdecadal shifts around 1990 and 2000. After the trend turning point in 2000, extreme precipitation indices show a significant increasing trend. After removing the thunderstorm-related precipitation, the interdecadal shift point of 1990 turns insignificant, and the trend turning point around 2000 turns weaker. Such differences also reveal the dominant role of thunderstorms in driving the observed interdecadal change of extreme precipitation. This study demonstrates that thunderstorms are important convective systems influencing extreme precipitation and dominate the increasing trend and interdecadal change of extreme precipitation. The findings not only contribute to a deeper understanding of extreme precipitation changes under global warming but also provide new insights into disaster prevention and mitigation for compound hazards involving lightning strikes and extreme precipitation.</p>

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Role of thunderstorms in extreme daily precipitation trends and their contribution to decadal variability

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Kexin Zhu,
  • Xiushu Qie,
  • Shanfeng Yuan,
  • Rubin Jiang,
  • Zifan Huang,
  • Zhuling Sun

摘要

Extreme precipitation and lightning strikes exert substantial economic losses and human casualties. Under climate change, the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events are projected to change significantly. Based on data from 345 meteorological stations across China from 1979 to 2013, this study examines the relationship between extreme precipitation and thunderstorm days. In China, thunderstorm days account for over 50% of extreme precipitation frequency at almost all stations, with contributions exceeding 80% in south coastal areas. Thunderstorm-related precipitation extremes exhibit significant increasing trends in terms of frequency, total amount, and daily maximum in southern and eastern China, while the corresponding general extreme precipitation indices increase slightly. In contrast, non-thunderstorm-related extreme precipitation indices exhibit significant and widespread decreasing trends across most parts of China. Such differences reveal the dominant role of thunderstorms in driving the observed increases in extreme precipitation. Furthermore, extreme precipitation indices show significant interdecadal shifts around 1990 and 2000. After the trend turning point in 2000, extreme precipitation indices show a significant increasing trend. After removing the thunderstorm-related precipitation, the interdecadal shift point of 1990 turns insignificant, and the trend turning point around 2000 turns weaker. Such differences also reveal the dominant role of thunderstorms in driving the observed interdecadal change of extreme precipitation. This study demonstrates that thunderstorms are important convective systems influencing extreme precipitation and dominate the increasing trend and interdecadal change of extreme precipitation. The findings not only contribute to a deeper understanding of extreme precipitation changes under global warming but also provide new insights into disaster prevention and mitigation for compound hazards involving lightning strikes and extreme precipitation.