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<p>Central Asia—an integral part of the world’s arid and semi-arid zones—supports ecosystems highly vulnerable to climate change. As global warming intensifies, the frequency and severity of extreme wildfires in the region have increased. This study provides the first systematic assessment of an individual extreme wildfire event in Central Asia, focusing on the record-setting 2002 wildfire during a period of declining fire activity (2001–2019). This catastrophic event was concentrated in central Kazakhstan during August and September. Exceptional spring rainfall, driven by SCAND blocking associated with a positive NAO, greatly enhanced vegetation growth and fuel accumulation. Although moisture transport by the West Asian Jet strengthened in August and September, an anomalous Siberian cyclone redirected this moisture northward, sharply reducing precipitation. The resulting drought, combined with excessive fuel loads, substantially elevated fuel combustibility and enabled rapid fire propagation, ultimately culminating in the 2002 extreme wildfire. This work demonstrates how climate anomalies and pre-existing fuel abundance jointly produced the event, emphasizing the latent hazard posed by unchecked fuel accumulation. The findings strengthen the scientific basis for fire early warning, risk management, and the development of effective fuel-management and climate-adaptation strategies.</p>

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Climate and fuel interplay sparked Central Asia’s record-breaking 2002 wildfire

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月17日

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  • Jitong Duan,
  • Dongliang Zhang

摘要

Central Asia—an integral part of the world’s arid and semi-arid zones—supports ecosystems highly vulnerable to climate change. As global warming intensifies, the frequency and severity of extreme wildfires in the region have increased. This study provides the first systematic assessment of an individual extreme wildfire event in Central Asia, focusing on the record-setting 2002 wildfire during a period of declining fire activity (2001–2019). This catastrophic event was concentrated in central Kazakhstan during August and September. Exceptional spring rainfall, driven by SCAND blocking associated with a positive NAO, greatly enhanced vegetation growth and fuel accumulation. Although moisture transport by the West Asian Jet strengthened in August and September, an anomalous Siberian cyclone redirected this moisture northward, sharply reducing precipitation. The resulting drought, combined with excessive fuel loads, substantially elevated fuel combustibility and enabled rapid fire propagation, ultimately culminating in the 2002 extreme wildfire. This work demonstrates how climate anomalies and pre-existing fuel abundance jointly produced the event, emphasizing the latent hazard posed by unchecked fuel accumulation. The findings strengthen the scientific basis for fire early warning, risk management, and the development of effective fuel-management and climate-adaptation strategies.