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<p>Under the influence of global warming, the increasing intensity of compound hot drought events (CHDEs) presents a substantial threat to human society. However, the interdecadal variability and driving factors of CHDEs in Northern East Asia (NEA) remain insufficiently understood. Employing the multivariate copula method to characterize CHDEs, this study investigates the characteristics and mechanisms in this region during July. Our findings reveal two notable interdecadal shifts in the intensity and frequency of CHDEs during 1940–2022, occurring in the mid-1950s and the mid-1990s. These shifts correspond to periods of interdecadal weakening and intensification of CHDEs, respectively. The primary driver of this interdecadal variability has been identified as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the positive phase of the AMO, anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean influence wave trains that propagate along great circle routes, subsequently altering regional atmospheric circulation patterns in NEA. Concurrently, the upper–level subtropical westerly jet experiences a northward shift and intensification. These conditions foster the development of anomalously high pressure and downward vertical motion, leading to reduced precipitation and elevated temperatures, which in turn increase the intensity and frequency of CHDEs in NEA during this period. The Atlantic pacemaker simulations further corroborate these findings, highlighting the significant role of the AMO phase in driving interdecadal variations of CHDEs. This research provides essential insights for future interdecadal predictions of CHDEs in NEA, thereby contributing to the broader understanding of climate variability and its implications for societal resilience.</p>

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How the AMO influences interdecadal variations of compound hot drought events in Northern East Asia

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月19日

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  • Qiuxiao Zhu,
  • Huixin Li,
  • Bo Sun,
  • Shengping He,
  • Yuan Yuan,
  • Jiani Zeng,
  • Anqin Tan

摘要

Under the influence of global warming, the increasing intensity of compound hot drought events (CHDEs) presents a substantial threat to human society. However, the interdecadal variability and driving factors of CHDEs in Northern East Asia (NEA) remain insufficiently understood. Employing the multivariate copula method to characterize CHDEs, this study investigates the characteristics and mechanisms in this region during July. Our findings reveal two notable interdecadal shifts in the intensity and frequency of CHDEs during 1940–2022, occurring in the mid-1950s and the mid-1990s. These shifts correspond to periods of interdecadal weakening and intensification of CHDEs, respectively. The primary driver of this interdecadal variability has been identified as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During the positive phase of the AMO, anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean influence wave trains that propagate along great circle routes, subsequently altering regional atmospheric circulation patterns in NEA. Concurrently, the upper–level subtropical westerly jet experiences a northward shift and intensification. These conditions foster the development of anomalously high pressure and downward vertical motion, leading to reduced precipitation and elevated temperatures, which in turn increase the intensity and frequency of CHDEs in NEA during this period. The Atlantic pacemaker simulations further corroborate these findings, highlighting the significant role of the AMO phase in driving interdecadal variations of CHDEs. This research provides essential insights for future interdecadal predictions of CHDEs in NEA, thereby contributing to the broader understanding of climate variability and its implications for societal resilience.