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<p>Hot droughts are concurrent or consecutive hot extremes and droughts that can cause larger impacts on natural systems and human society than each occurring alone. Research of hot drought variability generally paid attention to a specific timescale relevant to impacts therein, leaving a comprehensive understanding of changes across timescales lacking. We investigated changes in global hot droughts at multiple timescales in historical periods (1951–2014) based on ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and future climates (2015–2100) based on simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). An increase in the frequency of hot droughts for weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales (with relative changes of 31.73%, 65.15%, 92.27%, and 184.63%, respectively) was observed in historical periods. In addition, we found a consistent increase in the spatial extent of hot droughts for the four timescales (with trends of 1.16%/decade, 1.84%/decade, 2.26% decade, and 3.38%/decade, respectively) in historical periods. These increases in the frequency and spatial extent of hot droughts can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. For the selected 26 climate regions, Eastern Africa (EAF), Eastern Asia (EAS), Southern Europe/the Mediterranean (MED), Sahara (SAH), Southeast Asia (SEA), and Western Africa (WAF) showed higher increases in the frequency or spatial extent for multiple timescales during the historical period. Increased frequency and spatial extents of hot droughts were projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 scenario in the future period, with prominent increases in Amazon (AMZ), MED, Northeast Brazil (NEB), Southern Africa (SAF), Southern Australia/New Zealand (SAU), and West Coast South America (WSA) across multiple timescales. The findings can be useful for developing adaptation strategies to cope with threats from extremes across timescales in a warmer future.</p>

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Increases in global hot droughts across multiple timescales

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月24日

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  • Yitong Zhang,
  • Zengchao Hao,
  • Yang Chen,
  • Yuting Pang,
  • Vijay P. Singh

摘要

Hot droughts are concurrent or consecutive hot extremes and droughts that can cause larger impacts on natural systems and human society than each occurring alone. Research of hot drought variability generally paid attention to a specific timescale relevant to impacts therein, leaving a comprehensive understanding of changes across timescales lacking. We investigated changes in global hot droughts at multiple timescales in historical periods (1951–2014) based on ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and future climates (2015–2100) based on simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). An increase in the frequency of hot droughts for weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales (with relative changes of 31.73%, 65.15%, 92.27%, and 184.63%, respectively) was observed in historical periods. In addition, we found a consistent increase in the spatial extent of hot droughts for the four timescales (with trends of 1.16%/decade, 1.84%/decade, 2.26% decade, and 3.38%/decade, respectively) in historical periods. These increases in the frequency and spatial extent of hot droughts can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. For the selected 26 climate regions, Eastern Africa (EAF), Eastern Asia (EAS), Southern Europe/the Mediterranean (MED), Sahara (SAH), Southeast Asia (SEA), and Western Africa (WAF) showed higher increases in the frequency or spatial extent for multiple timescales during the historical period. Increased frequency and spatial extents of hot droughts were projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 scenario in the future period, with prominent increases in Amazon (AMZ), MED, Northeast Brazil (NEB), Southern Africa (SAF), Southern Australia/New Zealand (SAU), and West Coast South America (WSA) across multiple timescales. The findings can be useful for developing adaptation strategies to cope with threats from extremes across timescales in a warmer future.