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<p>Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. To investigate the impact of China’s carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry (GEOS-Chem). Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> (XCO<sub>2</sub>) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and surface CO<sub>2</sub> measurements in ObsPack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO<sub>2</sub>. The model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.51 ppm (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>=0.89) for OCO-2 XCO<sub>2</sub> in China and 2.65 ppm (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>=0.75) for surface CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr<sup>−1</sup> in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in China decelerate the increasing trends of XCO<sub>2</sub> to 1.81 ppm yr<sup>−1</sup>, making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of XCO<sub>2</sub> is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO<sub>2</sub> trends over northern and southern China, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern China. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO<sub>2</sub> by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO<sub>2</sub> sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally, trends and SCA in surface CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO<sub>2</sub>. Overall, our study underscores the potential of China’s carbon neutrality goal in mitigating global warming, underscoring the need for concerted and collaborative efforts from nations worldwide.</p>

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Impact of net-zero emissions on atmospheric CO2 concentration in China: Ideal simulations based on the GEOS-Chem model

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月11日

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  • Jingye Tan,
  • Jun Wang,
  • Huiqin Mao,
  • Hengmao Wang,
  • Zhiqiang Liu,
  • Meirong Wang,
  • Ran Yan,
  • Xunmei Wang,
  • Fei Jiang

摘要

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have caused global climate change such as global warming and more frequent climate extremes. Countries worldwide have proposed carbon neutrality strategies to curb the rising CO2 concentrations. To investigate the impact of China’s carbon neutrality goal on atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we conducted a series of ideal simulations from 2015 to 2019 using a global 3D chemistry transport model, Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry (GEOS-Chem). Compared with the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of atmospheric CO2 (XCO2) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and surface CO2 measurements in ObsPack, we find that GEOS-Chem effectively reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of CO2. The model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.51 ppm (R2=0.89) for OCO-2 XCO2 in China and 2.65 ppm (R2=0.75) for surface CO2 concentrations at the WLG station. Further, compared to 2.83 ppm yr−1 in the control experiment, we suggest that net-zero CO2 emissions in China decelerate the increasing trends of XCO2 to 1.81 ppm yr−1, making a decrease of approximately 35.89%. Meanwhile, the seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of XCO2 is moderately reduced from 7.39±0.81 to 6.75±0.70 ppm, representing a relative reduction of 9.91%. Spatially, net-zero CO2 emissions induce a more significant decrease in XCO2 trends over northern and southern China, while their impact on SCA is more evident in northern and northeastern China. Moreover, ideal experiments demonstrate that zero fossil CO2 emissions lead to a greater attenuation of the linear trends of XCO2 by 40.81%, while the absence of terrestrial CO2 sinks largely diminishes the SCA by 16.61%. Additionally, trends and SCA in surface CO2 concentrations exhibit almost identical decreasing responses to net-zero CO2 emissions but display greater sensitivities compared to XCO2. Overall, our study underscores the potential of China’s carbon neutrality goal in mitigating global warming, underscoring the need for concerted and collaborative efforts from nations worldwide.