Present status and prospective on the seismic hazard studies of major seismic gaps in the Sichuan-Yunnan region

Several seismic gaps have been identified along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone and the Longmenshan fault zone in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, including the Daofu-Shimian gap on the Xianshuihe Fault, the Anninghe-Zemuhe gap, parts of the Xiaojiang Fault, and the Dayi gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. The seismic hazards of the Daofu-Shimian and Dayi gaps have aroused great concern and caused considerable debate. This paper reviews the recent geophysical observations and multidisciplinary studies conducted by domestic and international researchers in these areas, focusing on seismogenic structures, seismic activity, fault locking, stress fields, as well as earthquake triggering, and further analyzes the current controversial viewpoints about the seismic hazards in these regions. Based on the comprehensive analysis, we argue that the kinematic status along the Daofu-Shimian segment may vary significantly along the fault strike. Due to limitations in data and models, there is no consensus on the seismogenic potential of this area. Conversely, the Dayi seismic gap presents a high seismic potential. Furthermore, we delve into the scientific problems associated with major seismic gaps in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and make prospects for the strategy of future work. We propose a research framework that combines dense array and distributed acoustic sensing, artificial intelligence and big data technologies, joint inversion of multiple geophysical fields, as well as numerical simulation techniques for comprehensive seismic hazard analysis in seismic gaps.