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<p>Global warming has become a shared issue for humanity. At the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2021, participating countries reached climate pledges aimed at making more proactive contributions to limit the global average temperature rise within 1.5°C by 2100. Land system changes are significant responses of land to climate change. As one of the contracting parties, China has proposed climate targets such as carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in recent years to support the global pledges of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, which will profoundly impact China’s future land system changes. This study focuses on China as the study area, produces data with a thematic resolution of 27 types of land systems, integrates the output of various land types by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) into four categories of land service demand, and combines these with the improved CLUMondo model to simulate China’s land system changes in 2100 under a 1.5°C global warming scenario and a reference scenario without updated emission reduction measures. The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The method of integrating the GCAM and improved CLUMondo model demonstrates high validation accuracy in simulating China’s land system changes, effectively predicting the changes. (2) Under the 1.5°C global warming scenario, the quality of ecosystems related to mountains, water, forests, farmland, lakes, and grasslands in China improved. The areas of shrubland, wetland, and forest are projected to increase by 185%, 79%, and 33%, respectively, with low-density shrubland, high-density wetland, and high-density forest showing the most significant increases. (3) Compared with the reference scenario, the 1.5°C climate pledges drive greater changes in future land systems, with wetland and forest area growth levels exceeding those of the reference scenario by 20% and 10%, respectively. Notably, the changes in cropland, grassland, and wetland areas are more pronounced in southern and coastal regions. (4) The most significant difference between the 1.5°C scenario and the reference scenario is the loss of cropland. It is estimated that 35% of the existing cropland (as of 2020) will be converted to other types by 2100 (or earlier), with high-density cropland decreasing by nearly 50%, which will impact food security. Cropland will primarily be converted to wetlands and forests, mainly in grain-producing regions such as the Sichuan Basin, North China Plain, and Northeast Plain. This study explores the long-term impacts of 1.5°C global warming climate pledges on China’s land systems, which is highly important for proposing measures to mitigate climate change risk and promote sustainable development in China.</p>

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Simulation and analysis of the long-term impacts of 1.5°C global climate pledges on China’s land systems

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月9日

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  • Jiaying Lv,
  • Changqing Song,
  • Yifan Gao,
  • Sijing Ye,
  • Peichao Gao

摘要

Global warming has become a shared issue for humanity. At the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2021, participating countries reached climate pledges aimed at making more proactive contributions to limit the global average temperature rise within 1.5°C by 2100. Land system changes are significant responses of land to climate change. As one of the contracting parties, China has proposed climate targets such as carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in recent years to support the global pledges of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, which will profoundly impact China’s future land system changes. This study focuses on China as the study area, produces data with a thematic resolution of 27 types of land systems, integrates the output of various land types by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) into four categories of land service demand, and combines these with the improved CLUMondo model to simulate China’s land system changes in 2100 under a 1.5°C global warming scenario and a reference scenario without updated emission reduction measures. The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) The method of integrating the GCAM and improved CLUMondo model demonstrates high validation accuracy in simulating China’s land system changes, effectively predicting the changes. (2) Under the 1.5°C global warming scenario, the quality of ecosystems related to mountains, water, forests, farmland, lakes, and grasslands in China improved. The areas of shrubland, wetland, and forest are projected to increase by 185%, 79%, and 33%, respectively, with low-density shrubland, high-density wetland, and high-density forest showing the most significant increases. (3) Compared with the reference scenario, the 1.5°C climate pledges drive greater changes in future land systems, with wetland and forest area growth levels exceeding those of the reference scenario by 20% and 10%, respectively. Notably, the changes in cropland, grassland, and wetland areas are more pronounced in southern and coastal regions. (4) The most significant difference between the 1.5°C scenario and the reference scenario is the loss of cropland. It is estimated that 35% of the existing cropland (as of 2020) will be converted to other types by 2100 (or earlier), with high-density cropland decreasing by nearly 50%, which will impact food security. Cropland will primarily be converted to wetlands and forests, mainly in grain-producing regions such as the Sichuan Basin, North China Plain, and Northeast Plain. This study explores the long-term impacts of 1.5°C global warming climate pledges on China’s land systems, which is highly important for proposing measures to mitigate climate change risk and promote sustainable development in China.