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<p>This study provides the first large-scale empirical analysis of appellate decisions in China’s <i>Pao Fen</i> (跑分) cases, a rapidly evolving form of cyber-enabled money laundering involving “money mule” operations. Analyzing 661 criminal appeals from China Judgements Online, the study borrows its conceptual framework from four major socio-legal theories and applies logistic regression, moderation analysis, stepwise selection, and CART modeling to identify key predictors of appellate success. Results show that appeals filed by the procuratorate, and voluntary fine payment significantly increase success rates, while denial of charges and vague legal arguments reduce them. Demographic factors such as age, gender, and education moderate these effects, revealing implicit biases in judicial reasoning. The study critically reflects on the limitations of China’s appellate system in responding to technologically complex crimes like <i>Pao Fen</i>, where participant culpability is often blurred by coercion, deception, and digital intermediaries. It offers critical implications for judicial reform, emphasizing the need for context-sensitive review mechanisms, improved prosecutorial oversight, and more equitable recognition of defendants’ structural vulnerabilities.</p>

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From Trial to Appeal: A Quantitative Assessment of Judicial Decision-Making in Pao Fen (跑分) Cases in Chinese Judicial System

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月29日

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  • Fangzhou Wang,
  • Weiping Pei

摘要

This study provides the first large-scale empirical analysis of appellate decisions in China’s Pao Fen (跑分) cases, a rapidly evolving form of cyber-enabled money laundering involving “money mule” operations. Analyzing 661 criminal appeals from China Judgements Online, the study borrows its conceptual framework from four major socio-legal theories and applies logistic regression, moderation analysis, stepwise selection, and CART modeling to identify key predictors of appellate success. Results show that appeals filed by the procuratorate, and voluntary fine payment significantly increase success rates, while denial of charges and vague legal arguments reduce them. Demographic factors such as age, gender, and education moderate these effects, revealing implicit biases in judicial reasoning. The study critically reflects on the limitations of China’s appellate system in responding to technologically complex crimes like Pao Fen, where participant culpability is often blurred by coercion, deception, and digital intermediaries. It offers critical implications for judicial reform, emphasizing the need for context-sensitive review mechanisms, improved prosecutorial oversight, and more equitable recognition of defendants’ structural vulnerabilities.