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<p>This paper develops a credibility-weighted DeGroot-type agent model to examine how economic expectations evolve within directed, weighted networks. After reviewing key expectation types, it explores how unequal influence and the presence of opinion leaders shape collective dynamics. The model is tested on random and scale-free network structures with varying levels of connectivity, initial expectation distributions, and reliability indices. Results indicate that network topology is the dominant factor influencing aggregate outcomes. Dense networks tend to reach rapid consensus, while scale-free structures sustain persistent heterogeneity and slower convergence. Sparse networks display partial and delayed alignment of expectations. Opinion leaders meaningfully shift aggregate expectations only when both highly credible and well connected; otherwise, their influence remains localized. By linking micro-level interaction patterns to macro-level expectation outcomes, the study contributes to refining the understanding of opinion dynamics in an economic context and suggests potential implications for expectation modelling and policy communication in interconnected systems. </p>

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Dynamics of economic expectations and the role of individual interactions in networked agent systems

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月4日

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  • Brigitta Tóth-Bozó,
  • Dietmar Meyer

摘要

This paper develops a credibility-weighted DeGroot-type agent model to examine how economic expectations evolve within directed, weighted networks. After reviewing key expectation types, it explores how unequal influence and the presence of opinion leaders shape collective dynamics. The model is tested on random and scale-free network structures with varying levels of connectivity, initial expectation distributions, and reliability indices. Results indicate that network topology is the dominant factor influencing aggregate outcomes. Dense networks tend to reach rapid consensus, while scale-free structures sustain persistent heterogeneity and slower convergence. Sparse networks display partial and delayed alignment of expectations. Opinion leaders meaningfully shift aggregate expectations only when both highly credible and well connected; otherwise, their influence remains localized. By linking micro-level interaction patterns to macro-level expectation outcomes, the study contributes to refining the understanding of opinion dynamics in an economic context and suggests potential implications for expectation modelling and policy communication in interconnected systems.