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Purpose <p>Wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau are essential for regional ecological stability but face threats from Potentially toxic elements (PTEs). This study systematically evaluates, for the first time, PTE concentrations, spatial distribution, ecological risks, and health risks in soils from the Yani Wetland, Tibet, China.</p> Materials and methods <p>Using Monte Carlo simulation, we assessed their impacts on human health and applied absolute principal component scores multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) to quantitatively apportion heavy.</p> Results and discussion <p>The mean concentrations of Cu, Cr, Ni, Zn, Pb, Cd, and As in Yani Wetland soils were close to background values. Both geo-accumulation index (I<sub>geo</sub>) and potential ecological risk index (RI) indicated low ecological risks, with Cd identified as the main risk factor. Probabilistic health risk assessment showed no non-carcinogenic risks (HI &lt; 1) and carcinogenic risks within the acceptable range (CR &lt; 1 × 10⁻⁴), with dermal contact dominant for adults and ingestion for children. Source apportionment (APCS-MLR and PMF) revealed three sources: natural (Cu, Cr, Ni, As), traffic (Pb), and agricultural (Cd), with Zn influenced by both natural and traffic. Source-oriented health risk evaluation indicated that natural sources contributed most to overall risk.</p> Conclusions <p>Metal(loid) concentrations in Yani Wetland soils were at background levels with low ecological and health risks. Cadmium (Cd) is the primary ecological risk factor, and health risks were within safe limits, dominated by dermal contact in adults and ingestion in children. Natural, traffic, and agricultural sources were identified, with natural sources contributing most to overall inputs and risks. This study demonstrates a novel framework that integrates APCS-MLR, PMF, probabilistic risk assessment, and Monte Carlo simulation, which enhances source identification and provides a robust method for the sustainable management of plateau wetland ecosystems.</p>

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Health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in a Tibetan Plateau Wetland, China, using APCS-MLR, PMF, and Monte Carlo simulation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月25日

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  • Wei Li,
  • Bo Yang,
  • Ruiqing Huang,
  • Jueyuan Yang,
  • Jianguo Cui,
  • Xuebin Lu,
  • Jian Xiong

摘要

Purpose

Wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau are essential for regional ecological stability but face threats from Potentially toxic elements (PTEs). This study systematically evaluates, for the first time, PTE concentrations, spatial distribution, ecological risks, and health risks in soils from the Yani Wetland, Tibet, China.

Materials and methods

Using Monte Carlo simulation, we assessed their impacts on human health and applied absolute principal component scores multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) to quantitatively apportion heavy.

Results and discussion

The mean concentrations of Cu, Cr, Ni, Zn, Pb, Cd, and As in Yani Wetland soils were close to background values. Both geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and potential ecological risk index (RI) indicated low ecological risks, with Cd identified as the main risk factor. Probabilistic health risk assessment showed no non-carcinogenic risks (HI < 1) and carcinogenic risks within the acceptable range (CR < 1 × 10⁻⁴), with dermal contact dominant for adults and ingestion for children. Source apportionment (APCS-MLR and PMF) revealed three sources: natural (Cu, Cr, Ni, As), traffic (Pb), and agricultural (Cd), with Zn influenced by both natural and traffic. Source-oriented health risk evaluation indicated that natural sources contributed most to overall risk.

Conclusions

Metal(loid) concentrations in Yani Wetland soils were at background levels with low ecological and health risks. Cadmium (Cd) is the primary ecological risk factor, and health risks were within safe limits, dominated by dermal contact in adults and ingestion in children. Natural, traffic, and agricultural sources were identified, with natural sources contributing most to overall inputs and risks. This study demonstrates a novel framework that integrates APCS-MLR, PMF, probabilistic risk assessment, and Monte Carlo simulation, which enhances source identification and provides a robust method for the sustainable management of plateau wetland ecosystems.