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<p>As Sino–U.S. strategic competition intensifies, U.S. technology diffusion to China faces growing uncertainty. This paper examines how such competition affects the value of patents transferred from the United States to China. Using the entropy weighting method, we construct a patent value index and apply a Tobit model to panel data at the 4-digit IPC subclass level from 1980 to 2023. The results show that strategic competition significantly reduces the value of transferred patents, primarily through rising economic policy uncertainty, stricter CFIUS reviews, and the expansion of the Entity List. The effect varies by competition intensity, type of competition, and the patent share structure between the two countries. While high-intensity competition suppresses patent value, low-intensity competition has a positive effect. Competition events involving noneconomic issues exert a stronger negative impact than those involving economic issues do, and patents in fields where China holds a larger share are more adversely affected. Further analysis reveals that deeper value chain participation mitigates the negative impact of competition, whereas a narrowing technology gap amplifies it. These findings contribute to understanding international technology diffusion under geopolitical rivalry and offer empirical insights for policymaking in an era of global tech competition.</p>

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Sino-US Strategic Competition and US Technology Diffusion to China: Evidence from Patent Value

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月18日

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  • Jing Pan,
  • Xin-Yi Wang,
  • Bo Chen

摘要

As Sino–U.S. strategic competition intensifies, U.S. technology diffusion to China faces growing uncertainty. This paper examines how such competition affects the value of patents transferred from the United States to China. Using the entropy weighting method, we construct a patent value index and apply a Tobit model to panel data at the 4-digit IPC subclass level from 1980 to 2023. The results show that strategic competition significantly reduces the value of transferred patents, primarily through rising economic policy uncertainty, stricter CFIUS reviews, and the expansion of the Entity List. The effect varies by competition intensity, type of competition, and the patent share structure between the two countries. While high-intensity competition suppresses patent value, low-intensity competition has a positive effect. Competition events involving noneconomic issues exert a stronger negative impact than those involving economic issues do, and patents in fields where China holds a larger share are more adversely affected. Further analysis reveals that deeper value chain participation mitigates the negative impact of competition, whereas a narrowing technology gap amplifies it. These findings contribute to understanding international technology diffusion under geopolitical rivalry and offer empirical insights for policymaking in an era of global tech competition.